Day: September 17, 2025

Russia vs Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Russia+v…
AI Overview
Both countries are increasingly asserting their independence, distancing themselves from Moscow’s influence, and deepening their ties with other international partners. Current information indicates that Russia is facing significant diplomatic and geopolitical challenges with both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Tensions with Azerbaijan:
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have sharply deteriorated since late 2024, stemming from several serious incidents.
Civilian airliner crash: On December 25, 2024, a civilian jet flying from Baku to the Russian city of Grozny was hit by Russian air defenses and crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. Azerbaijan accused Moscow of trying to cover up the incident.
Arrests of citizens: In June 2025, Russian police operations in Yekaterinburg led to the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijani citizens in custody. Baku called it an “extrajudicial killing,” while Moscow accused Azerbaijan of being emotional.
Retaliatory arrests: Azerbaijan responded by raiding the Baku office of the Russian state media outlet Sputnik, arresting employees accused of being undercover agents.
Strategic drift: These incidents highlight Azerbaijan’s growing assertiveness and move away from Russia’s orbit, seeking closer ties with Turkey and other Western partners.
Tensions with KazakhstanKazakhstan, while remaining economically interconnected with Russia, has also taken steps to distance itself from Moscow since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Independent foreign policy: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has refused to recognize Russia’s annexations in Ukraine and Georgia, and has declined to provide troops for the war in Ukraine.
Economic pressure: Russia has retaliated with politically motivated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a critical oil export route for Kazakhstan that runs through Russia.
Energy diversification: In response to Russian pressure, Kazakhstan is actively pursuing export route diversification, which includes cooperation with Azerbaijan on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor).
Naval exercises: Russia has voiced its displeasure over growing military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the Caspian Sea, calling their joint exercises a “direct threat”.
Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan cooperationAs both countries deal with Russia’s declining influence, their partnership has strengthened.Middle Corridor: The two nations are collaborating on developing the Middle Corridor, a trade route intended to bypass Russia. This includes laying a fiber-optic cable across the Caspian Sea.
Military cooperation: Joint military drills have been conducted, signaling deeper strategic alignment.
Economic collaboration: Beyond energy, the countries are expanding cooperation in agriculture and trade.
Broader regional power shiftThese developments signify a broader realignment of power in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.The Russia-Ukraine war has diminished Moscow’s ability to act as a regional security guarantor, creating a power vacuum.
Azerbaijan, bolstered by its 2023 victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, is more assertive and less reliant on Russian backing.
This has opened a space for other international actors, including the United States, which brokered a preliminary peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025.

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 17, 2025