Day: September 22, 2025

#CIA  #Russia  #Putin  #Dumin  #Manturov  #Belousov
Dumin, Manturov, Belousov: are they chosen by Putin for succession? – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Dumin%2C…
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Analysts and observers consider Alexei Dyumin, Denis Manturov, and Andrei Belousov to be among a group of potential candidates for a future succession, but there is no definitive indication that any single individual has been chosen by Vladimir Putin. Putin’s power structure is deliberately opaque, and he has spoken of the need for multiple candidates to provide the Russian public with a choice. The promotions of these individuals are seen as a way to test their capabilities in new, high-pressure roles within a wartime economy. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] 
Key roles and considerations for each figure
Alexei Dyumin Dyumin, a former bodyguard of Putin, was appointed Secretary of the State Council in May 2024. The appointment is significant because constitutional changes made the State Council a permanent, high-ranking part of the power structure, leading some to believe it is a vehicle for a future political transition.

• Background: Dyumin has a long history with Putin and is a veteran of the security services, including a role in the annexation of Crimea.
• Significance: His loyalty and military background make him a strong contender in the eyes of some in the intelligence community, and his new State Council role could be a testing ground for his readiness for higher office. However, some analysts view the role as a symbolic promotion rather than a sign of being groomed for succession. [1, 3, 4, 6, 7] 

Denis Manturov Manturov was elevated to First Deputy Prime Minister in May 2024, placing him in charge of Russia’s critical defense and civilian industrial sectors.

• Background: As First Deputy Prime Minister, he oversees industrial policy, including state defense procurement, a key priority in Russia’s long-term war effort.
• Significance: His promotion highlights the Kremlin’s focus on maintaining and optimizing its military-industrial complex. While it puts him in a powerful position, it also primarily associates him with the technical, rather than political, management of the state. [2, 9] 

Andrei Belousov Belousov was a surprising appointee for Minister of Defense in May 2024, as he is a civilian economist with no prior military experience.

• Background: He previously served as First Deputy Prime Minister and is a strong proponent of a state-controlled economy.
• Significance: His appointment signals Putin’s intention to increase the efficiency of Russia’s defense spending and further integrate the economy into the war effort. His role is likely that of a financial administrator, not a battlefield strategist. [2, 11, 12, 13, 14] 

A pattern of managing potential successors
Putin’s reshuffles, particularly in May 2024, are more likely designed to strengthen Russia’s wartime governance rather than to designate a successor. The frequent rotation of officials into new, demanding roles suggests an ongoing process of evaluation, not anointing. This strategy of moving loyalists between key posts serves to:

• Increase competition: By positioning several potential contenders, Putin avoids a clear favorite from developing a power base of their own.
• Maintain loyalty: The candidates remain dependent on Putin for their advancement, reinforcing his control over the elite.
• Test abilities: New roles provide a way to test and vet officials under pressure, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. [2, 3, 5, 15, 16] 

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/1…
[2]  csis.org/analysis/defense-in…
[3]  istories.media/en/opinions/2…
[4]  daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/…
[5]  reuters.com/world/europe/put…
[6]  istories.media/en/opinions/2…
[7]  chathamhouse.org/2024/06/evi…
[8]  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_…
[9]  osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/ana…
[10]  thehill.com/policy/internati…
[11]  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey…
[12]  businessinsider.com/russia-e…
[13]  facebook.com/XinhuaNewsAgenc…
[14]  theguardian.com/world/articl…
[15]  politico.eu/article/after-pu…
[16]  t-invariant.org/2025/03/sove…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 22, 2025