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@mikenov: Predictions in the Intelligence Analysis

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Post date December 24, 2023

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Ukraine corruption scandal: Is Putin’s GRU behind it?
https://thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com/2025/12/ukraine-corruption-scandal-is-putins.html

The recent significant corruption scandal in Ukraine involving the state nuclear energy company Energoatom is being investigated by Ukrainian anti-corruption bodies, and while it is being exploited by Russian propaganda, there is no direct evidence that the current scheme was orchestrated by Putin’s GRU (Russia’s military intelligence agency).
However, the GRU has a documented history of coordinating past disinformation campaigns and leveraging corrupt Ukrainian officials for its own purposes.
Russian Interference in Past Ukrainian Corruption Narratives
In previous years, Russian military intelligence was directly involved in spreading false allegations and amplifying existing corruption narratives to achieve its strategic goals, which included worsening U.S.–Ukrainian relations and undermining Western support for Ukraine.
Key facts regarding past Russian involvement:
GRU Coordination: A network involving GRU lieutenants coordinated the spread of falsehoods through specific Ukrainian lawmakers and businessmen.
Andrii Derkach: This pro-Kremlin former Ukrainian lawmaker, who recently fled to Russia and became a Russian senator, has been accused by Ukraine’s SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) of receiving millions of dollars per month from the GRU to create security companies that would assist the 2022 Russian invasion forces. Derkach was also a central figure in spreading the Biden-Ukraine conspiracy theory, a campaign linked to Russian intelligence efforts to interfere with U.S. politics.
Weaponized Corruption: Analysts at the Atlantic Council and other sources note that Putin consistently uses “weaponized corruption” tactics to weaken Ukraine and Europe from within.
Current Scandal vs. Russian Involvement
The current, separate $100 million Energoatom scandal involves a scheme to misappropriate funds through inflated contracts.
Investigation by Independent Bodies: The current investigation is being handled by Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption bodies, specifically the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), which were designed to operate independently of the President.
Domestic Focus: The focus of the current domestic investigation is on Ukrainian nationals, including high-level officials and business partners close to President Zelenskyy’s circle.
Exploitation by Russia: While the scandal is a serious domestic issue, Russian state media and propaganda are actively using it to portray Ukraine’s government as illegitimate and corrupt to their own advantage.
In summary, while Russia’s GRU has a proven track record of orchestrating past disinformation and corruption schemes in Ukraine for strategic gain, the current large-scale Energoatom scandal appears to be an internal Ukrainian matter that is being exploited by the Kremlin for propaganda purposes.
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