#SouthCaucasus #SkiesControl #Israel Who controls the skies of the South Caucasus? No single entity controls the skies of the Southern Caucasus; control is fragmented and contested, with Russia maintaining significant air power in Armenia and having a history of regional dominance, while Azerbaijan is rapidly strengthening its own air and missile defense capabilities with systems from Russia, Israel, and China. This creates a complex and evolving security landscape where neither Russia nor any other single power holds a total monopoly over the skies, with Azerbaijan’s growing military strength and its pursuit of diverse partnerships also contributing to this dynamic balance. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

#SouthCaucasus  #SkiesControl  #Israel
Who controls the skies of the South Caucasus?

No single entity controls the skies of the Southern Caucasus; control is fragmented and contested, with Russia maintaining significant air power in Armenia and having a history of regional dominance, while Azerbaijan is rapidly strengthening its own air and missile defense capabilities with systems from Russia, Israel, and China. This creates a complex and evolving security landscape where neither Russia nor any other single power holds a total monopoly over the skies, with Azerbaijan’s growing military strength and its pursuit of diverse partnerships also contributing to this dynamic balance. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Russia

Presence: Russia maintains a significant military presence in Armenia, which includes air assets and air defense systems.
Dominance: Historically, Russia has been a dominant power in the region, though this role is being challenged by other actors and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Limitations: Recent events and shifts in power have diminished Russia’s ability to exert full control, especially in comparison to its previous dominance. [3, 4, 6]

Azerbaijan

Military Modernization: Azerbaijan has invested heavily in its military and is rapidly modernizing its air and missile defense capabilities.
Diverse Arsenal: The country has acquired advanced air defense systems from multiple countries, including Russia (S-300), Israel, and most recently, potentially China (HQ-9BE).
Growing Influence: Azerbaijan’s military strength, particularly in air defense, is a key factor in its growing influence and relative autonomy in the region, challenging the traditional Russian monopoly on military power. [2, 3]

Armenia

Security Dependence: Armenia has historically been more dependent on Russia for security, which includes air defense support.
Strategic Diversification: Armenia has sought to diversify its partnerships and reduce its reliance on Russia, though the military balance remains a key factor. [3, 4]

Conclusion

The “control” of the skies is not absolute and is constantly shifting.
Russia retains a strong military presence but is not the sole or unchallenged power.
Azerbaijan’s increasing military capabilities, particularly in air and missile defense, are a significant factor in the changing regional balance, as are the strategic partnerships of Armenia. [2, 3, 4, 5]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  gisreportsonline.com/r/armen…
[2]  forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2…
[3]  bakunetwork.org/en/news/anal…
[4]  euro-sd.com/2025/09/major-ne…
[5]  aze.media/the-south-caucasus…
[6]  youtube.com/watch?v=0IoH-89a…

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— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025