The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that Tajikistan will sustain strong economic growth over the next two years, according to the bank’s Asian Development Outlook 2025 released in April.
Robust Growth Ahead
Tajikistan’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026. This growth is expected to be fueled by significant investments in the energy and industrial sectors, solid domestic demand, and an increasingly dynamic private sector.
While these figures mark a slight decline from the impressive 8.4% GDP growth recorded in 2024, one of the highest in the region, the ADB highlights the need for deeper structural reforms. In particular, digital transformation and the expansion of e-governance are deemed critical to ensuring long-term, sustainable development.
Digital Transformation: Opportunities and Hurdles
ADB’s Resident Representative in Tajikistan, Ko Sakamoto, emphasized the strategic importance of digitalization.
“We welcome the government’s prioritization of digital transformation as a key driver of development. We stand ready to support efforts to overcome persistent barriers, including a lack of investment,” he said.
Despite widespread mobile phone usage, Tajikistan ranks 139th globally in mobile internet speed. However, digital engagement is on the rise: in the first half of 2024, the number of registered digital wallets hit 10.4 million, and non-cash transactions rose 16.2% year-on-year.
ADB experts recommend that Tajikistan focus on developing a robust digital infrastructure to broaden access to public services. The widespread integration of digital technologies in governance and business is seen as vital to industrial modernization and improving overall quality of life.
Inflation, meanwhile, is projected at 5.0% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026. Key inflationary pressures include rising consumer lending, salary increases for public sector employees, and higher utility tariffs.
Continued Partnership and Support
The Asian Development Bank, a major multilateral financial institution supporting sustainable and inclusive development across Asia and the Pacific, has been working with Tajikistan since 1998. Over that time, the country has received more than $2.7 billion in assistance, including $2.2 billion in grants.
These funds have supported vital infrastructure projects in transportation and energy, as well as climate resilience and social development programs.
Established in 1966, ADB has 69 member countries, 49 of which are from the region. The bank continues to be one of Tajikistan’s principal development partners, offering innovative financing tools and strategic cooperation to enhance economic sustainability and improve livelihoods.
