What Trump’s return means for Armenia and the South Caucasus

Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president of the United States comes at a critical time for the South Caucasus region, as Georgia remains highly polarised after the controversial re-election of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, and as Armenia and Azerbaijan seek to finalise a historic peace deal.

Trump’s victory has raised both hopes and concerns in Yerevan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was quick to congratulate Trump on his victory, expressing his hope to “work together”  on the strategic partnership between the two countries, but many in the region are worried that the transition of power in Washington could significantly decrease US involvement in the ongoing peace process with Azerbaijan. 

Pashinyan’s extensive message to Trump, however, was notably positive and optimistic. Pashinyan emphasised the “unprecedented” improvement in the two countries’ relations in the past years, hoping that the trend will continue under Trump’s presidency. Pashinyan praised Trump personally, saying that he is confident that Trump’s “rich experience, knowledge and abilities will best serve to ensure the well-being of the American people, promote the interests of the United States, and strengthen the global role of the United States”.

The timing of the elections is particularly crucial for Armenia, as Joe Biden’s administration has become increasingly involved in the process in the past year. The improvement that Pashinyan mentioned in US-Armenian relations in the “past years” took place during the Biden presidency, with the two countries’ relations switching to “strategic partnership” from “strategic dialogue” earlier this year. 

Trump’s election campaign did explicitly mention Armenia, as the US-based diaspora were potential voters. His promises regarding Armenia were direct and populistic, pledging to “protect persecuted Christians, work to stop violence and ethnic cleansing, and establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

US-Armenian community leaders did not support any candidate, unlike previous years, explaining their neutrality by the lack of clarity on the issues regarding Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the presidential candidates. The leaders of the nationalist Hay Dat committee, however, remained hopeful that they could possibly advocate for sanctions against Azerbaijan, the release of Armenian prisoners. 

In the election, Trump’s opponent Democrat Kamala Harris won 54% of the votes in California, where most Armenian-Americans live, including in Los Angeles, which has over 150,000 Armenian residents. 

Trump’s promises for Armenia were seen as empty by many in Yerevan, as the Trump administration was in power during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, with no particular focus on the region and little to no action during the war that ended with a devastating defeat for Armenia. 

Some see Trump’s comeback as a chance for Azerbaijan to minimise Western involvement in the Caucasus and achieve a deal with Armenia with maximum benefits for Azerbaijan. Russia, which has been backing Azerbaijan in recent years, also has warned against a “hasty” peace deal, complaining about the US government’s increased desire to finalise the deal before Biden’s departure. 

Trump’s return could also complicate Armenia’s regional relationships. His potentially more constructive approach toward Moscow might ease some regional tensions, but his harder stance on Iran – one of Armenia’s crucial neighbours and economic partners – could create new challenges. Trump’s strong pro-Israel position and potential alignment with Azerbaijan in anti-Iranian initiatives might further complicate regional dynamics for Armenia. In the meantime, any potential Russia-US rapprochement would further complicate Armenia’s foreign policy shift towards the West and the European Union.