#SouthCaucasus #SkiesControl #Israel
Who controls the skies of the South Caucasus?No single entity controls the skies of the Southern Caucasus; control is fragmented and contested, with Russia maintaining significant air power in Armenia and having a history of regional dominance, while Azerbaijan is rapidly strengthening its own air and missile defense capabilities with systems from Russia, Israel, and China. This creates a complex and evolving security landscape where neither Russia nor any other single power holds a total monopoly over the skies, with Azerbaijan’s growing military strength and its pursuit of diverse partnerships also contributing to this dynamic balance. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
RussiaPresence: Russia maintains a significant military presence in Armenia, which includes air assets and air defense systems.
Dominance: Historically, Russia has been a dominant power in the region, though this role is being challenged by other actors and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Limitations: Recent events and shifts in power have diminished Russia’s ability to exert full control, especially in comparison to its previous dominance. [3, 4, 6]Azerbaijan
Military Modernization: Azerbaijan has invested heavily in its military and is rapidly modernizing its air and missile defense capabilities.
Diverse Arsenal: The country has acquired advanced air defense systems from multiple countries, including Russia (S-300), Israel, and most recently, potentially China (HQ-9BE).
Growing Influence: Azerbaijan’s military strength, particularly in air defense, is a key factor in its growing influence and relative autonomy in the region, challenging the traditional Russian monopoly on military power. [2, 3]Armenia
Security Dependence: Armenia has historically been more dependent on Russia for security, which includes air defense support.
Strategic Diversification: Armenia has sought to diversify its partnerships and reduce its reliance on Russia, though the military balance remains a key factor. [3, 4]Conclusion
The “control” of the skies is not absolute and is constantly shifting.
Russia retains a strong military presence but is not the sole or unchallenged power.
Azerbaijan’s increasing military capabilities, particularly in air and missile defense, are a significant factor in the changing regional balance, as are the strategic partnerships of Armenia. [2, 3, 4, 5]AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] gisreportsonline.com/r/armen…
[2] forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2…
[3] bakunetwork.org/en/news/anal…
[4] euro-sd.com/2025/09/major-ne…
[5] aze.media/the-south-caucasus…
[6] youtube.com/watch?v=0IoH-89a…– Google Search google.com/search?q=Who+cont…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
Day: November 13, 2025
C-139 plane crash, Netanyahu, and Erdogan
youtube.com/watch?v=FfyTeda0…
– Google Search google.com/search?q=C-139+pl…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
youtube.com/watch?v=FfyTeda0…
C-139 plane crash, Netanyahu, and Erdogan
youtube.com/watch?v=FfyTeda0…
– Google Search google.com/search?q=C-139+pl…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
The Turkish military cargo plane crash of the 11.11.25: does the specific cork-screw spinning pattern of the vertical fall, suggest the possible causes?
Yes, the “cork-screw spinning pattern,” technically known as an aircraft spin, is a critical aerodynamic indicator suggesting a loss of control that likely points to an aggravated stall as the primary cause. [1, 2]
Aerodynamic Significance of a Spin A spin is a specific type of stall that results in autorotation (uncommanded rolling) and a steep, corkscrew-like, downward path. Key aerodynamic conditions associated with this pattern include:• Stall condition: Both wings are in a stalled state, meaning the angle of attack has increased beyond the critical angle, leading to a loss of lift.
• Unbalanced lift and drag: One wing is in a deeper stall than the other, creating unbalanced aerodynamic forces. The wing with greater drag drops, causing the aircraft to yaw (rotate) towards it, which sustains the autorotation.
• High rate of descent: The aircraft falls rapidly, rotating around a vertical axis. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]Possible Causes Indicated by the Spin The fact that the aircraft entered a spin suggests several possible scenarios that the ongoing investigation will examine:
• Aerodynamic failure/structural failure: Initial reports and videos suggest the tail section might have separated in flight. A major in-flight structural failure (such as the loss of a control surface or part of the fuselage) can immediately lead to an unrecoverable loss of control and an aggravated stall/spin.
• Cargo shift: One preliminary version being investigated is that the cargo, which consisted of F-16 spare parts (not explosives), was not properly secured and shifted in flight, damaging the internal structure or compromising stability and control.
• Pilot disorientation/error: While less likely for a multi-crew military plane in good weather, spatial disorientation, especially in turbulent conditions or during an emergency, can lead to a pilot failing to execute proper stall recovery procedures, resulting in a spin.
• System malfunction: A failure in the hydraulic system or flight control systems could prevent the pilots from correcting the aircraft’s attitude, leading to the uncontrolled spin.
• Maintenance issues: The C-130 involved was reportedly 57 years old. Long-term corrosion or inadequate maintenance (e.g., improper repairs on a corroded part) could lead to component failure during flight, as has happened in other C-130 accidents. [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]The aircraft’s black box has been recovered, and the data will be crucial in determining the exact sequence of events that led to the spin and subsequent crash. [8, 9, 14, 15]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] skybrary.aero/articles/spin
[2] youtube.com/watch?v=4LX2amQ7…
[3] cfi.treklog.com/CFI_PTS_ASEL…
[4] youtube.com/watch?v=xOeSQaAg…
[5] youtube.com/watch?v=-Fz_N9iJ…
[6] yahoo.com/news/articles/turk…
[7] report.az/en/domestic-politi…
[8] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[9] uk.news.yahoo.com/turkey-pro…
[10] dw.com/en/lithuania-suspects…
[11] yahoo.com/news/articles/20-p…
[12] youtube.com/watch?v=yYWThUkk…
[13] reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfi…
[14] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[15] theblackbox.co.ke/the-blackb…– Google Search google.com/search?q=The+Turk…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
The Turkish military cargo plane crash of the 11.11.25: does the specific cork-screw spinning pattern of the vertical fall, with the burning fuel streaming from the tips of the wings, suggest the possible causes?
Yes, the specific visual evidence from the November 11, 2025, Turkish military C-130 cargo plane crash suggests certain aerodynamic conditions, which can help investigators narrow down the possible causes.
Aviation experts have indicated that the footage, which shows:A corkscrew/spiraling fall: This is consistent with a spin. A spin occurs when an aircraft stalls (loses lift) in an uncoordinated manner, causing one wing to drop and the aircraft to rotate rapidly toward the ground.
Vertical descent: This rapid descent (recorded vertical speeds exceeded 19,000 feet per minute in the final seconds) is a characteristic of an unrecoverable stall/spin, especially at lower altitudes.
Fuel streaming from the wingtips: One expert suggested this might indicate the crew was attempting to dump fuel for an emergency landing. This action would be part of standard emergency procedures if the crew had some control but were dealing with a major issue. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]More critically, unconfirmed videos and expert analysis of the wreckage suggest that the tail section and possibly the cockpit/front section may have separated from the main body in mid-air. This mid-air breakup is a significant piece of evidence pointing to a catastrophic structural failure, possibly initiated by:
A major technical failure: Given the C-130 is an older model (the crashed plane was reportedly 57 years old), material fatigue or improper maintenance could lead to a structural failure, though the plane had undergone recent maintenance.
An onboard explosion/sabotage: The abrupt separation of major sections of the aircraft has led some observers to speculate about external factors, although initial evidence suggests an accident. [1, 6, 9, 10, 11]Turkish and Georgian authorities have recovered the black box and are conducting a meticulous investigation to clarify the exact cause, which is not yet definitively known. Turkey has temporarily grounded its C-130 fleet pending inspections. [9, 10, 12, 13]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] flightradar24.com/blog/fligh…
[2] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[3] youtube.com/watch?v=R2y6aRyY…
[4] tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/pub…
[5] asn.flightsafety.org/wikibas…
[6] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[7] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-fli…
[8] nytimes.com/1974/03/05/archi…
[9] aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/1…
[10] reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
[11] wsj.com/articles/SB100557567…
[12] euronews.com/2025/11/13/turk…
[13] abcnews.go.com/International…– Google Search google.com/search?q=The+Turk…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
The Turkish military cargo plane crash of the 11.11.25: does the specific cork-screw spinning pattern of the vertical fall, suggest the possible causes?
Yes, the “cork-screw spinning pattern,” technically known as an aircraft spin, is a critical aerodynamic indicator suggesting a loss of control that likely points to an aggravated stall as the primary cause. [1, 2]
Aerodynamic Significance of a Spin A spin is a specific type of stall that results in autorotation (uncommanded rolling) and a steep, corkscrew-like, downward path. Key aerodynamic conditions associated with this pattern include:• Stall condition: Both wings are in a stalled state, meaning the angle of attack has increased beyond the critical angle, leading to a loss of lift.
• Unbalanced lift and drag: One wing is in a deeper stall than the other, creating unbalanced aerodynamic forces. The wing with greater drag drops, causing the aircraft to yaw (rotate) towards it, which sustains the autorotation.
• High rate of descent: The aircraft falls rapidly, rotating around a vertical axis. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]Possible Causes Indicated by the Spin The fact that the aircraft entered a spin suggests several possible scenarios that the ongoing investigation will examine:
• Aerodynamic failure/structural failure: Initial reports and videos suggest the tail section might have separated in flight. A major in-flight structural failure (such as the loss of a control surface or part of the fuselage) can immediately lead to an unrecoverable loss of control and an aggravated stall/spin.
• Cargo shift: One preliminary version being investigated is that the cargo, which consisted of F-16 spare parts (not explosives), was not properly secured and shifted in flight, damaging the internal structure or compromising stability and control.
• Pilot disorientation/error: While less likely for a multi-crew military plane in good weather, spatial disorientation, especially in turbulent conditions or during an emergency, can lead to a pilot failing to execute proper stall recovery procedures, resulting in a spin.
• System malfunction: A failure in the hydraulic system or flight control systems could prevent the pilots from correcting the aircraft’s attitude, leading to the uncontrolled spin.
• Maintenance issues: The C-130 involved was reportedly 57 years old. Long-term corrosion or inadequate maintenance (e.g., improper repairs on a corroded part) could lead to component failure during flight, as has happened in other C-130 accidents. [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]The aircraft’s black box has been recovered, and the data will be crucial in determining the exact sequence of events that led to the spin and subsequent crash. [8, 9, 14, 15]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] skybrary.aero/articles/spin
[2] youtube.com/watch?v=4LX2amQ7…
[3] cfi.treklog.com/CFI_PTS_ASEL…
[4] youtube.com/watch?v=xOeSQaAg…
[5] youtube.com/watch?v=-Fz_N9iJ…
[6] yahoo.com/news/articles/turk…
[7] report.az/en/domestic-politi…
[8] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[9] uk.news.yahoo.com/turkey-pro…
[10] dw.com/en/lithuania-suspects…
[11] yahoo.com/news/articles/20-p…
[12] youtube.com/watch?v=yYWThUkk…
[13] reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfi…
[14] reuters.com/world/europe/tur…
[15] theblackbox.co.ke/the-blackb…– Google Search google.com/search?q=The+Turk…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
Spinning pattern: The aircraft was seen “corkscrewing” or spiraling toward the earth. – Google Search google.com/search?q=Spinning…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025
Michael Novakhov on X: “The Turkish military cargo plane crash of the 11.11.25: does the specific spinning pattern of the fall, with the door separated (and spinning nearby) suggest the possible causes? Yes, aviation experts suggest that the footage showing the Turkish C-130 military cargo plane x.com/mikenov/status/1…” / X x.com/mikenov/status/1988980…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 13, 2025