RT by @mikenov: RT by @mikenov: Will it only be a psyop or will the SBU surprise Russia with some sort of operation?

Will it only be a psyop or will the SBU surprise Russia with some sort of operation?Joni Askola (@joni_askola)Zelensky just announced that he approved a 40-day SBU operation aimed at forcing Russia to end the war, leaving everyone wondering what this mysterious campaign could actually look like. What should we expect?

Because Zelensky chose to announce this strategy publicly, the psychological impact will be front and center regardless of what happens on the ground.

If this were a traditional, large-scale conventional counteroffensive, the administration would have kept it strictly secret, and the regular military would be leading the charge rather than the SBU. Among many other things, the SBU specializes in asymmetric warfare, from high-profile operations inside Russian territory (they did Operation Spiderweb) to assassinations of war criminals. SBU Alpha is also heavily involved in drone strikes.

What should we expect? No one really knows but there are many options. We could see a continuous, linear escalation of the current strike campaigns, or a series of highly publicized operations. It could also be a single massive one.

Significant targets could be on the menu to maximize the visual and practical damage, such as a strike on the Kerch Bridge to choke off Crimea, or on the more distant Yelabuga drone factory that manufactures Russia’s daily supply of Geran drones. Daring, limited incursions into occupied territories could also be used to make the Russian military look weak and disorganized. Many more possibilities exist too. Only time will tell.

Despite the obvious symbolical and tactical value of such operations, nobody should expect a sudden end to the war within the next 40 days (or even after).

While the war is going poorly for Moscow, Russia still possesses massive manpower reserves, deep mobilization potential, extensive equipment manufacturing, and guaranteed priority fuel access for its armed forces.

Vladimir Putin views this invasion as his permanent historical legacy and is deeply entrenched, meaning that while the SBU can inflict severe pain, it will take much longer than 40 days to break his delusional resolve—  https://x.com/joni_askola/status/2070498496487059806

— @joni_askola Jun 26, 2026