Category: Articles and Tweets

#Ukraine  #Russia  #Drones
The War of Drones
x.com/mikenov/status/2066174…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov)Drones: Ukraine-Russia War’s Outcome  gemini.google.com/share/5c29…
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally transformed modern warfare, serving as the world’s first full-scale “drone war.” Over the past four years, unmanned aerial, naval, and ground vehicles have evolved from supplementary reconnaissance tools into the defining feature of the battlefield.

While drones have undeniably rewritten tactical doctrines and economized both offense and defense, a clear-eyed assessment reveals that they are an enabler—not a standalone “magic weapon” that will unilaterally determine the war’s outcome.

Here is an assessment and predictive analysis of the drone war and its impact on the strategic outcome of the conflict.

Current Assessment: The Tactical Revolution

The battlefield in 2026 looks vastly different from the opening maneuvers of 2022. Both sides have integrated drones into a mature reconnaissance-strike complex, making the battlefield highly transparent up to 20 kilometers behind the front lines and rendering traditional surprise maneuvers nearly impossible.

The Rise of FPVs and “Motherships”: First-Person View (FPV) drones have become the standard munition for both sides, functioning as cheap, precision-guided anti-tank missiles. Ukraine has also pioneered the use of fixed-wing “mothership” drones, which carry multiple smaller FPV drones deep over enemy lines, release them, and act as signal relays.
Naval Dominance Without a Navy: Ukraine’s use of explosive Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) in the Black Sea is arguably the most strategically decisive drone application to date. Despite losing its conventional fleet in 2022, Ukraine’s long-range naval drones forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, reopening vital shipping lanes and degrading Russia’s ability to launch sea-based cruise missiles.
Deep Strikes and Asymmetric Reach: Ukraine has compensated for its lack of a deep-strike air force by developing long-range drones capable of hitting Russian airbases, logistics hubs, and defense-industrial facilities hundreds of kilometers away. Conversely, Russia continues to use mass swarms of Shahed drones (increasingly armed with cluster munitions) to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure and population centers.

The Technological Arms Race

The drone war is currently defined by a vicious cycle of electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures and technological adaptation.

Autonomy and AI: As the airspace becomes saturated with signal jamming, both sides are turning to artificial intelligence. Ukraine has deployed systems like the TFL-1 and US-supplied autonomous drones that use machine vision to lock onto targets, allowing the drone to complete its strike even if the operator’s signal is jammed.
Fiber-Optic Drones: To bypass EW completely, Russia has heavily invested in fiber-optic drones. Controlled via a physical wire spool, these drones are un-jammable and have been used effectively by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, particularly during the recent fighting in the Kursk region.
The Mass vs. Innovation Dynamic: Initially, Ukraine held a distinct advantage through decentralized innovation, leveraging commercial tech and a vibrant volunteer network. However, by 2026, Russia has proven highly adaptable. Moscow has shifted the dynamic by prioritizing specialized mass production, extensive operator training, and raw numbers to slowly overwhelm Ukraine’s technological edge.

Predictive Analysis: Drones and the War’s Outcome

While drones currently account for an estimated 75% to 85% of frontline casualties, their role in determining the final outcome of the war is nuanced.

1. Drones Dominate Tactics, Not Strategy

Drones alone cannot seize or hold territory. The conflict has shown that while drones force the enemy into positional, static warfare by exposing troop movements, large-scale breakthroughs still require traditional combined arms: mechanized infantry, armor, and artillery. Drones are the eyes and the vanguard, but they must be paired with conventional mass to achieve strategic collapse.

2. The War of Industrial Attrition

The victor will likely be the side that can out-produce the other while maintaining a steady pipeline of trained operators. Ukraine currently holds billions in underutilized domestic defense production capacity due to capital constraints. Russia’s strategy relies on absorbing high attrition rates and leaning on its centralized state defense industry to pump out standardized drones en masse.

3. The Shift to Swarms and Interceptors

In the near future, the integration of autonomous swarms will become standard. We will see fleets of inexpensive drones overwhelming conventional air defenses purely through numbers. Additionally, drone-on-drone warfare—where autonomous interceptor drones are deployed to hunt enemy reconnaissance and attack drones in mid-air—will become a critical layer of localized air defense.

Conclusion

Drones have allowed Ukraine to punch far above its weight, compensating for severe deficits in manpower, artillery, and conventional air/naval power. They have prevented a total Russian victory and allowed Kyiv to strike the Russian homeland.

However, drones have also created a paradox: they are so effective at destroying armor and troop concentrations that they have largely frozen the front lines, turning the conflict into a brutal war of attrition. Ultimately, drones will not win the war on their own. The outcome will be dictated by which side can best harmonize its drone intelligence with long-range fires, sustain the massive industrial output required to feed the drone war, and successfully integrate these systems to support traditional ground maneuvers.
–

share.google/aimode/bx5al7Xg…
Drones have become the primary kinetic driver and strategic equalizer in the Russia-Ukraine war, accounting for an estimated 60% to 85% of all battlefield casualties. [1, 2, 3]
As the conflict progresses through 2026, the “War of Drones” has evolved from tactical improvisation into a highly industrialized, AI-driven, and structurally definitive element of modern attrition warfare. [4, 5, 6, 7]
Current Assessment of the Drone War
The battlefield has transformed into a highly transparent, lethal grid where massed, cheap unmanned systems neutralize expensive legacy platforms like tanks and heavy artillery. [8, 9, 10]
1. Ukraine’s Asymmetric Advantages
Tactical Overmatch: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have secured a 1.5-to-1 FPV drone ratio advantage over Russia. In mid-2026, Ukrainian drone units struck nearly 180,000 verified targets in a single month. [2]

Industrial Scale: Ukraine’s domestic defense tech sector, backed by European loans and entities like Brave1, has scaled rapidly. Production capacity has surged from 2 million systems in 2024 to an anticipated 7 to 8 million drones annually in 2026. [3, 11, 12, 13, 14]
The “Mid-Range” Campaign: Kyiv successfully expanded its operations into the “middle zone” (20 to 300 kilometers behind the front). This targeted campaign has systematically degraded Russian ground-based air defenses, transport hubs, and ammunition warehouses. [15, 16, 17]
2. Russia’s Consolidation and Mass

Strategic Strike Packages: Russia relies heavily on massed, Iranian-designed Shahed-type one-way attack drones (Geran-3/4). These are launched in massive waves to oversaturate Ukrainian air defenses before launching complex ballistic and cruise missile strikes. [18, 19, 20, 21, 22]

Elite Electronic Warfare (EW): Specialized Russian drone and electronic warfare units, such as the Rubikon organization, initially excelled at locating and eliminating Ukrainian drone pilots via signals intelligence. However, aggressive Ukrainian counter-targeting campaigns have heavily attrited these elite operators. [23, 24]
Tactical Adaptation: Russian forces use fixed-wing “mothership” drones and repeater relays to extend the range of their FPV strike assets deep into the Ukrainian rear. [25]
3. Technological Innovations

Fiber-Optic Guidance: To render Electronic Warfare jamming obsolete, both sides now deploy physical fiber-optic tethered drones. These systems provide un-jammable crystal-clear video feeds directly to the operator. [26, 27, 28]

Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): Frontline operations have expanded to the ground. Automated UGVs and robotic platforms are now frequently used for mining, logistics deliveries, casualty evacuation, and even automated assault operations. [2, 29, 30, 31, 32]
Predictive Analysis (2026 and Beyond)

1. The “War of Operating Systems”
As manual radio frequencies become entirely denied by electronic warfare, the conflict is shifting toward automated, fully autonomous terminal guidance. Analysts predict the war will solidify into a “war of operating systems” within the next 3 to 5 years. Artificial intelligence will autonomously coordinate localized drone swarms to map, prioritize, and strike targets without human-in-the-loop intervention. [1, 33, 34, 35]
2. Deep Logistic Strangling
Ukraine’s intermediate-range campaign is projected to peak further into late 2026. By methodically disrupting rail lines, maritime hubs, and fuel infrastructure (such as the M14 highway and the Mariupol-Donetsk networks), drones will severely limit Russia’s capacity to deploy and sustain heavy mechanized equipment near the front. [17, 36]
3. Economic and Resource Attrition
Continuous long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy terminals have already triggered domestic fuel crises in occupied territories like Crimea and cut Russian oil export revenues by an estimated 20%. This economic asymmetry—where a $5,000 drone inflicts tens of millions of dollars in infrastructure damage—will continuously strain Moscow’s wartime economy. [37, 38, 39]
Impact on the Ultimate War Outcome
While drones have fundamentally rewritten military doctrine, they remain a component of attrition rather than an independent, war-winning weapon. [40, 41, 42, 43]
Role Dimension [1, 2, 26, 36, 37, 38, 44, 45] Strategic Impact & LimitationsDenial of ManeuverDrones have created a highly lethal “no man’s land” spanning 15 to 40 kilometers wide. This prevents either side from massing armor for decisive, deep territorial breakthroughs, entrenching a highly fluid but functionally static positional war.Manpower DynamicsPrecision drone operations have allowed Ukraine to inflict unsustainable casualty rates on Russian forces, stretching Moscow’s contract recruitment capabilities thin. However, drones cannot fully compensate for Ukraine’s persistent infantry shortages.Forcing NegotiationsDrones provide the primary asymmetric leverage for Kyiv. By destabilizing Russian logistics, stabilizing the frontline, and bringing the economic costs of the war directly into the Russian rear, drone supremacy is designed to force Moscow to negotiate from a position of relative weakness.
Final Outcome Vector: Drones will not deliver a swift, decisive battlefield victory for either side. Instead, they act as the ultimate mechanism of operational containment. For Ukraine, drone dominance acts as an indispensable shield that preserves its limited manpower, offsets conventional artillery deficits, and buys strategic time. The ultimate outcome of the war will depend on which state can out-produce the other in the autonomous software domain while simultaneously sustaining the raw economic and human costs of an automated war of attrition. [3, 26, 33, 45]
[1]  gisreportsonline.com
[2]  understandingwar.org
[3]  rnbo.gov.ua
[4]  youtube.com
[5]  academic.oup.com
[6]  cfr.org
[7]  linkedin.com
[8]  english.elpais.com
[9]  youtube.com
[10]  militarytimes.com

[11]  youtube.com

[12]  russiamatters.org
[13]  instagram.com
[14]  facebook.com
[15]  understandingwar.org
[16]  atlanticcouncil.org
[17]  youtube.com
[18]  understandingwar.org
[19]  rferl.org
[20]  geopoliticalmonitor.com
[21]  carnegieendowment.org
[22]  irregularwarfarecenter.org
[23]  atlasinstitute.org
[24]  understandingwar.org
[25]  understandingwar.org
[26]  cfr.org
[27]  youtube.com
[28]  linkedin.com
[29]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[30]  bloomberg.com
[31]  foreignpolicy.com
[32]  kse.ua
[33]  reuters.com
[34]  hoover.org
[35]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[36]  understandingwar.org
[37]  youtube.com
[38]  youtube.com
[39]  youtube.com
[40]  foreignaffairs.com
[41]  theconversation.com
[42]  globaldata.com
[43]  mwi.westpoint.edu
[44]  nationalinterest.org
[45]  politico.com
-—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2066174949300060515

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

#Ukraine  #Russia  #Drones
The War of Drones
x.com/mikenov/status/2066174…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov)Drones: Ukraine-Russia War’s Outcome  gemini.google.com/share/5c29…
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally transformed modern warfare, serving as the world’s first full-scale “drone war.” Over the past four years, unmanned aerial, naval, and ground vehicles have evolved from supplementary reconnaissance tools into the defining feature of the battlefield.

While drones have undeniably rewritten tactical doctrines and economized both offense and defense, a clear-eyed assessment reveals that they are an enabler—not a standalone “magic weapon” that will unilaterally determine the war’s outcome.

Here is an assessment and predictive analysis of the drone war and its impact on the strategic outcome of the conflict.

Current Assessment: The Tactical Revolution

The battlefield in 2026 looks vastly different from the opening maneuvers of 2022. Both sides have integrated drones into a mature reconnaissance-strike complex, making the battlefield highly transparent up to 20 kilometers behind the front lines and rendering traditional surprise maneuvers nearly impossible.

The Rise of FPVs and “Motherships”: First-Person View (FPV) drones have become the standard munition for both sides, functioning as cheap, precision-guided anti-tank missiles. Ukraine has also pioneered the use of fixed-wing “mothership” drones, which carry multiple smaller FPV drones deep over enemy lines, release them, and act as signal relays.
Naval Dominance Without a Navy: Ukraine’s use of explosive Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) in the Black Sea is arguably the most strategically decisive drone application to date. Despite losing its conventional fleet in 2022, Ukraine’s long-range naval drones forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, reopening vital shipping lanes and degrading Russia’s ability to launch sea-based cruise missiles.
Deep Strikes and Asymmetric Reach: Ukraine has compensated for its lack of a deep-strike air force by developing long-range drones capable of hitting Russian airbases, logistics hubs, and defense-industrial facilities hundreds of kilometers away. Conversely, Russia continues to use mass swarms of Shahed drones (increasingly armed with cluster munitions) to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure and population centers.

The Technological Arms Race

The drone war is currently defined by a vicious cycle of electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures and technological adaptation.

Autonomy and AI: As the airspace becomes saturated with signal jamming, both sides are turning to artificial intelligence. Ukraine has deployed systems like the TFL-1 and US-supplied autonomous drones that use machine vision to lock onto targets, allowing the drone to complete its strike even if the operator’s signal is jammed.
Fiber-Optic Drones: To bypass EW completely, Russia has heavily invested in fiber-optic drones. Controlled via a physical wire spool, these drones are un-jammable and have been used effectively by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, particularly during the recent fighting in the Kursk region.
The Mass vs. Innovation Dynamic: Initially, Ukraine held a distinct advantage through decentralized innovation, leveraging commercial tech and a vibrant volunteer network. However, by 2026, Russia has proven highly adaptable. Moscow has shifted the dynamic by prioritizing specialized mass production, extensive operator training, and raw numbers to slowly overwhelm Ukraine’s technological edge.

Predictive Analysis: Drones and the War’s Outcome

While drones currently account for an estimated 75% to 85% of frontline casualties, their role in determining the final outcome of the war is nuanced.

1. Drones Dominate Tactics, Not Strategy

Drones alone cannot seize or hold territory. The conflict has shown that while drones force the enemy into positional, static warfare by exposing troop movements, large-scale breakthroughs still require traditional combined arms: mechanized infantry, armor, and artillery. Drones are the eyes and the vanguard, but they must be paired with conventional mass to achieve strategic collapse.

2. The War of Industrial Attrition

The victor will likely be the side that can out-produce the other while maintaining a steady pipeline of trained operators. Ukraine currently holds billions in underutilized domestic defense production capacity due to capital constraints. Russia’s strategy relies on absorbing high attrition rates and leaning on its centralized state defense industry to pump out standardized drones en masse.

3. The Shift to Swarms and Interceptors

In the near future, the integration of autonomous swarms will become standard. We will see fleets of inexpensive drones overwhelming conventional air defenses purely through numbers. Additionally, drone-on-drone warfare—where autonomous interceptor drones are deployed to hunt enemy reconnaissance and attack drones in mid-air—will become a critical layer of localized air defense.

Conclusion

Drones have allowed Ukraine to punch far above its weight, compensating for severe deficits in manpower, artillery, and conventional air/naval power. They have prevented a total Russian victory and allowed Kyiv to strike the Russian homeland.

However, drones have also created a paradox: they are so effective at destroying armor and troop concentrations that they have largely frozen the front lines, turning the conflict into a brutal war of attrition. Ultimately, drones will not win the war on their own. The outcome will be dictated by which side can best harmonize its drone intelligence with long-range fires, sustain the massive industrial output required to feed the drone war, and successfully integrate these systems to support traditional ground maneuvers.
–

share.google/aimode/bx5al7Xg…
Drones have become the primary kinetic driver and strategic equalizer in the Russia-Ukraine war, accounting for an estimated 60% to 85% of all battlefield casualties. [1, 2, 3]
As the conflict progresses through 2026, the “War of Drones” has evolved from tactical improvisation into a highly industrialized, AI-driven, and structurally definitive element of modern attrition warfare. [4, 5, 6, 7]
Current Assessment of the Drone War
The battlefield has transformed into a highly transparent, lethal grid where massed, cheap unmanned systems neutralize expensive legacy platforms like tanks and heavy artillery. [8, 9, 10]
1. Ukraine’s Asymmetric Advantages
Tactical Overmatch: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have secured a 1.5-to-1 FPV drone ratio advantage over Russia. In mid-2026, Ukrainian drone units struck nearly 180,000 verified targets in a single month. [2]

Industrial Scale: Ukraine’s domestic defense tech sector, backed by European loans and entities like Brave1, has scaled rapidly. Production capacity has surged from 2 million systems in 2024 to an anticipated 7 to 8 million drones annually in 2026. [3, 11, 12, 13, 14]
The “Mid-Range” Campaign: Kyiv successfully expanded its operations into the “middle zone” (20 to 300 kilometers behind the front). This targeted campaign has systematically degraded Russian ground-based air defenses, transport hubs, and ammunition warehouses. [15, 16, 17]
2. Russia’s Consolidation and Mass

Strategic Strike Packages: Russia relies heavily on massed, Iranian-designed Shahed-type one-way attack drones (Geran-3/4). These are launched in massive waves to oversaturate Ukrainian air defenses before launching complex ballistic and cruise missile strikes. [18, 19, 20, 21, 22]

Elite Electronic Warfare (EW): Specialized Russian drone and electronic warfare units, such as the Rubikon organization, initially excelled at locating and eliminating Ukrainian drone pilots via signals intelligence. However, aggressive Ukrainian counter-targeting campaigns have heavily attrited these elite operators. [23, 24]
Tactical Adaptation: Russian forces use fixed-wing “mothership” drones and repeater relays to extend the range of their FPV strike assets deep into the Ukrainian rear. [25]
3. Technological Innovations

Fiber-Optic Guidance: To render Electronic Warfare jamming obsolete, both sides now deploy physical fiber-optic tethered drones. These systems provide un-jammable crystal-clear video feeds directly to the operator. [26, 27, 28]

Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): Frontline operations have expanded to the ground. Automated UGVs and robotic platforms are now frequently used for mining, logistics deliveries, casualty evacuation, and even automated assault operations. [2, 29, 30, 31, 32]
Predictive Analysis (2026 and Beyond)

1. The “War of Operating Systems”
As manual radio frequencies become entirely denied by electronic warfare, the conflict is shifting toward automated, fully autonomous terminal guidance. Analysts predict the war will solidify into a “war of operating systems” within the next 3 to 5 years. Artificial intelligence will autonomously coordinate localized drone swarms to map, prioritize, and strike targets without human-in-the-loop intervention. [1, 33, 34, 35]
2. Deep Logistic Strangling
Ukraine’s intermediate-range campaign is projected to peak further into late 2026. By methodically disrupting rail lines, maritime hubs, and fuel infrastructure (such as the M14 highway and the Mariupol-Donetsk networks), drones will severely limit Russia’s capacity to deploy and sustain heavy mechanized equipment near the front. [17, 36]
3. Economic and Resource Attrition
Continuous long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy terminals have already triggered domestic fuel crises in occupied territories like Crimea and cut Russian oil export revenues by an estimated 20%. This economic asymmetry—where a $5,000 drone inflicts tens of millions of dollars in infrastructure damage—will continuously strain Moscow’s wartime economy. [37, 38, 39]
Impact on the Ultimate War Outcome
While drones have fundamentally rewritten military doctrine, they remain a component of attrition rather than an independent, war-winning weapon. [40, 41, 42, 43]
Role Dimension [1, 2, 26, 36, 37, 38, 44, 45] Strategic Impact & LimitationsDenial of ManeuverDrones have created a highly lethal “no man’s land” spanning 15 to 40 kilometers wide. This prevents either side from massing armor for decisive, deep territorial breakthroughs, entrenching a highly fluid but functionally static positional war.Manpower DynamicsPrecision drone operations have allowed Ukraine to inflict unsustainable casualty rates on Russian forces, stretching Moscow’s contract recruitment capabilities thin. However, drones cannot fully compensate for Ukraine’s persistent infantry shortages.Forcing NegotiationsDrones provide the primary asymmetric leverage for Kyiv. By destabilizing Russian logistics, stabilizing the frontline, and bringing the economic costs of the war directly into the Russian rear, drone supremacy is designed to force Moscow to negotiate from a position of relative weakness.
Final Outcome Vector: Drones will not deliver a swift, decisive battlefield victory for either side. Instead, they act as the ultimate mechanism of operational containment. For Ukraine, drone dominance acts as an indispensable shield that preserves its limited manpower, offsets conventional artillery deficits, and buys strategic time. The ultimate outcome of the war will depend on which state can out-produce the other in the autonomous software domain while simultaneously sustaining the raw economic and human costs of an automated war of attrition. [3, 26, 33, 45]
[1]  gisreportsonline.com
[2]  understandingwar.org
[3]  rnbo.gov.ua
[4]  youtube.com
[5]  academic.oup.com
[6]  cfr.org
[7]  linkedin.com
[8]  english.elpais.com
[9]  youtube.com
[10]  militarytimes.com

[11]  youtube.com

[12]  russiamatters.org
[13]  instagram.com
[14]  facebook.com
[15]  understandingwar.org
[16]  atlanticcouncil.org
[17]  youtube.com
[18]  understandingwar.org
[19]  rferl.org
[20]  geopoliticalmonitor.com
[21]  carnegieendowment.org
[22]  irregularwarfarecenter.org
[23]  atlasinstitute.org
[24]  understandingwar.org
[25]  understandingwar.org
[26]  cfr.org
[27]  youtube.com
[28]  linkedin.com
[29]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[30]  bloomberg.com
[31]  foreignpolicy.com
[32]  kse.ua
[33]  reuters.com
[34]  hoover.org
[35]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[36]  understandingwar.org
[37]  youtube.com
[38]  youtube.com
[39]  youtube.com
[40]  foreignaffairs.com
[41]  theconversation.com
[42]  globaldata.com
[43]  mwi.westpoint.edu
[44]  nationalinterest.org
[45]  politico.com
-—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2066174949300060515

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

Drones: Ukraine-Russia War’s Outcome  gemini.google.com/share/5c29…
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally transformed modern warfare, serving as the world’s first full-scale “drone war.” Over the past four years, unmanned aerial, naval, and ground vehicles have evolved from supplementary reconnaissance tools into the defining feature of the battlefield.

While drones have undeniably rewritten tactical doctrines and economized both offense and defense, a clear-eyed assessment reveals that they are an enabler—not a standalone “magic weapon” that will unilaterally determine the war’s outcome.

Here is an assessment and predictive analysis of the drone war and its impact on the strategic outcome of the conflict.

Current Assessment: The Tactical Revolution

The battlefield in 2026 looks vastly different from the opening maneuvers of 2022. Both sides have integrated drones into a mature reconnaissance-strike complex, making the battlefield highly transparent up to 20 kilometers behind the front lines and rendering traditional surprise maneuvers nearly impossible.

The Rise of FPVs and “Motherships”: First-Person View (FPV) drones have become the standard munition for both sides, functioning as cheap, precision-guided anti-tank missiles. Ukraine has also pioneered the use of fixed-wing “mothership” drones, which carry multiple smaller FPV drones deep over enemy lines, release them, and act as signal relays.
Naval Dominance Without a Navy: Ukraine’s use of explosive Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) in the Black Sea is arguably the most strategically decisive drone application to date. Despite losing its conventional fleet in 2022, Ukraine’s long-range naval drones forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, reopening vital shipping lanes and degrading Russia’s ability to launch sea-based cruise missiles.
Deep Strikes and Asymmetric Reach: Ukraine has compensated for its lack of a deep-strike air force by developing long-range drones capable of hitting Russian airbases, logistics hubs, and defense-industrial facilities hundreds of kilometers away. Conversely, Russia continues to use mass swarms of Shahed drones (increasingly armed with cluster munitions) to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure and population centers.

The Technological Arms Race

The drone war is currently defined by a vicious cycle of electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures and technological adaptation.

Autonomy and AI: As the airspace becomes saturated with signal jamming, both sides are turning to artificial intelligence. Ukraine has deployed systems like the TFL-1 and US-supplied autonomous drones that use machine vision to lock onto targets, allowing the drone to complete its strike even if the operator’s signal is jammed.
Fiber-Optic Drones: To bypass EW completely, Russia has heavily invested in fiber-optic drones. Controlled via a physical wire spool, these drones are un-jammable and have been used effectively by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, particularly during the recent fighting in the Kursk region.
The Mass vs. Innovation Dynamic: Initially, Ukraine held a distinct advantage through decentralized innovation, leveraging commercial tech and a vibrant volunteer network. However, by 2026, Russia has proven highly adaptable. Moscow has shifted the dynamic by prioritizing specialized mass production, extensive operator training, and raw numbers to slowly overwhelm Ukraine’s technological edge.

Predictive Analysis: Drones and the War’s Outcome

While drones currently account for an estimated 75% to 85% of frontline casualties, their role in determining the final outcome of the war is nuanced.

1. Drones Dominate Tactics, Not Strategy

Drones alone cannot seize or hold territory. The conflict has shown that while drones force the enemy into positional, static warfare by exposing troop movements, large-scale breakthroughs still require traditional combined arms: mechanized infantry, armor, and artillery. Drones are the eyes and the vanguard, but they must be paired with conventional mass to achieve strategic collapse.

2. The War of Industrial Attrition

The victor will likely be the side that can out-produce the other while maintaining a steady pipeline of trained operators. Ukraine currently holds billions in underutilized domestic defense production capacity due to capital constraints. Russia’s strategy relies on absorbing high attrition rates and leaning on its centralized state defense industry to pump out standardized drones en masse.

3. The Shift to Swarms and Interceptors

In the near future, the integration of autonomous swarms will become standard. We will see fleets of inexpensive drones overwhelming conventional air defenses purely through numbers. Additionally, drone-on-drone warfare—where autonomous interceptor drones are deployed to hunt enemy reconnaissance and attack drones in mid-air—will become a critical layer of localized air defense.

Conclusion

Drones have allowed Ukraine to punch far above its weight, compensating for severe deficits in manpower, artillery, and conventional air/naval power. They have prevented a total Russian victory and allowed Kyiv to strike the Russian homeland.

However, drones have also created a paradox: they are so effective at destroying armor and troop concentrations that they have largely frozen the front lines, turning the conflict into a brutal war of attrition. Ultimately, drones will not win the war on their own. The outcome will be dictated by which side can best harmonize its drone intelligence with long-range fires, sustain the massive industrial output required to feed the drone war, and successfully integrate these systems to support traditional ground maneuvers.
–

share.google/aimode/bx5al7Xg…
Drones have become the primary kinetic driver and strategic equalizer in the Russia-Ukraine war, accounting for an estimated 60% to 85% of all battlefield casualties. [1, 2, 3]
As the conflict progresses through 2026, the “War of Drones” has evolved from tactical improvisation into a highly industrialized, AI-driven, and structurally definitive element of modern attrition warfare. [4, 5, 6, 7]
Current Assessment of the Drone War
The battlefield has transformed into a highly transparent, lethal grid where massed, cheap unmanned systems neutralize expensive legacy platforms like tanks and heavy artillery. [8, 9, 10]
1. Ukraine’s Asymmetric Advantages
Tactical Overmatch: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have secured a 1.5-to-1 FPV drone ratio advantage over Russia. In mid-2026, Ukrainian drone units struck nearly 180,000 verified targets in a single month. [2]

Industrial Scale: Ukraine’s domestic defense tech sector, backed by European loans and entities like Brave1, has scaled rapidly. Production capacity has surged from 2 million systems in 2024 to an anticipated 7 to 8 million drones annually in 2026. [3, 11, 12, 13, 14]
The “Mid-Range” Campaign: Kyiv successfully expanded its operations into the “middle zone” (20 to 300 kilometers behind the front). This targeted campaign has systematically degraded Russian ground-based air defenses, transport hubs, and ammunition warehouses. [15, 16, 17]
2. Russia’s Consolidation and Mass

Strategic Strike Packages: Russia relies heavily on massed, Iranian-designed Shahed-type one-way attack drones (Geran-3/4). These are launched in massive waves to oversaturate Ukrainian air defenses before launching complex ballistic and cruise missile strikes. [18, 19, 20, 21, 22]

Elite Electronic Warfare (EW): Specialized Russian drone and electronic warfare units, such as the Rubikon organization, initially excelled at locating and eliminating Ukrainian drone pilots via signals intelligence. However, aggressive Ukrainian counter-targeting campaigns have heavily attrited these elite operators. [23, 24]
Tactical Adaptation: Russian forces use fixed-wing “mothership” drones and repeater relays to extend the range of their FPV strike assets deep into the Ukrainian rear. [25]
3. Technological Innovations

Fiber-Optic Guidance: To render Electronic Warfare jamming obsolete, both sides now deploy physical fiber-optic tethered drones. These systems provide un-jammable crystal-clear video feeds directly to the operator. [26, 27, 28]

Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): Frontline operations have expanded to the ground. Automated UGVs and robotic platforms are now frequently used for mining, logistics deliveries, casualty evacuation, and even automated assault operations. [2, 29, 30, 31, 32]
Predictive Analysis (2026 and Beyond)

1. The “War of Operating Systems”
As manual radio frequencies become entirely denied by electronic warfare, the conflict is shifting toward automated, fully autonomous terminal guidance. Analysts predict the war will solidify into a “war of operating systems” within the next 3 to 5 years. Artificial intelligence will autonomously coordinate localized drone swarms to map, prioritize, and strike targets without human-in-the-loop intervention. [1, 33, 34, 35]
2. Deep Logistic Strangling
Ukraine’s intermediate-range campaign is projected to peak further into late 2026. By methodically disrupting rail lines, maritime hubs, and fuel infrastructure (such as the M14 highway and the Mariupol-Donetsk networks), drones will severely limit Russia’s capacity to deploy and sustain heavy mechanized equipment near the front. [17, 36]
3. Economic and Resource Attrition
Continuous long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy terminals have already triggered domestic fuel crises in occupied territories like Crimea and cut Russian oil export revenues by an estimated 20%. This economic asymmetry—where a $5,000 drone inflicts tens of millions of dollars in infrastructure damage—will continuously strain Moscow’s wartime economy. [37, 38, 39]
Impact on the Ultimate War Outcome
While drones have fundamentally rewritten military doctrine, they remain a component of attrition rather than an independent, war-winning weapon. [40, 41, 42, 43]
Role Dimension [1, 2, 26, 36, 37, 38, 44, 45] Strategic Impact & LimitationsDenial of ManeuverDrones have created a highly lethal “no man’s land” spanning 15 to 40 kilometers wide. This prevents either side from massing armor for decisive, deep territorial breakthroughs, entrenching a highly fluid but functionally static positional war.Manpower DynamicsPrecision drone operations have allowed Ukraine to inflict unsustainable casualty rates on Russian forces, stretching Moscow’s contract recruitment capabilities thin. However, drones cannot fully compensate for Ukraine’s persistent infantry shortages.Forcing NegotiationsDrones provide the primary asymmetric leverage for Kyiv. By destabilizing Russian logistics, stabilizing the frontline, and bringing the economic costs of the war directly into the Russian rear, drone supremacy is designed to force Moscow to negotiate from a position of relative weakness.
Final Outcome Vector: Drones will not deliver a swift, decisive battlefield victory for either side. Instead, they act as the ultimate mechanism of operational containment. For Ukraine, drone dominance acts as an indispensable shield that preserves its limited manpower, offsets conventional artillery deficits, and buys strategic time. The ultimate outcome of the war will depend on which state can out-produce the other in the autonomous software domain while simultaneously sustaining the raw economic and human costs of an automated war of attrition. [3, 26, 33, 45]
[1]  gisreportsonline.com
[2]  understandingwar.org
[3]  rnbo.gov.ua
[4]  youtube.com
[5]  academic.oup.com
[6]  cfr.org
[7]  linkedin.com
[8]  english.elpais.com
[9]  youtube.com
[10]  militarytimes.com

[11]  youtube.com

[12]  russiamatters.org
[13]  instagram.com
[14]  facebook.com
[15]  understandingwar.org
[16]  atlanticcouncil.org
[17]  youtube.com
[18]  understandingwar.org
[19]  rferl.org
[20]  geopoliticalmonitor.com
[21]  carnegieendowment.org
[22]  irregularwarfarecenter.org
[23]  atlasinstitute.org
[24]  understandingwar.org
[25]  understandingwar.org
[26]  cfr.org
[27]  youtube.com
[28]  linkedin.com
[29]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[30]  bloomberg.com
[31]  foreignpolicy.com
[32]  kse.ua
[33]  reuters.com
[34]  hoover.org
[35]  ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack…
[36]  understandingwar.org
[37]  youtube.com
[38]  youtube.com
[39]  youtube.com
[40]  foreignaffairs.com
[41]  theconversation.com
[42]  globaldata.com
[43]  mwi.westpoint.edu
[44]  nationalinterest.org
[45]  politico.com
–

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

Gemini – direct access to Google AI  gemini.google.com/share/6c80…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

#CIA  #FBI  #Mossad
TRUMP and MOSSAD
share.google/aimode/VHX80Xbv…
x.com/mikenov/status/2066142…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov)Israel’s interference in the US Presidential Elections of 2016 and 2024  gemini.google.com/share/6c80…—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2066142427866370362

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

#CIA  #FBI  #Mossad
Israel’s interference in the Elections worldwide
share.google/aimode/ZquLnkyj…
Reports of global election interference involving entities based in Israel center primarily on private cyber-intelligence and disinformation firms rather than documented operations by the Israeli state itself. International investigations and government watchdogs have exposed several private Israeli companies selling digital manipulation and psychological warfare services to foreign clients. [1, 2, 3]
–
Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…
–
The BlackCore Investigations (2026)
In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection service, Viginum, published a comprehensive report implicating the Israeli cyber-influence firm BlackCore in several recent international elections. [4]

France: The firm orchestrated an online smear campaign targeting three mayoral candidates from the left-wing, pro-Palestine La France Insoumise (LFI) party. The campaign utilized deceptive websites and AI-generated social media bots to spread false criminal allegations. [4, 5, 6]
Scotland: BlackCore deployed coordinated networks of fake proxy accounts to target First Minister John Swinney, the Scottish National Party (SNP), and the Scottish government. The operation intensified after Swinney made public remarks critical of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. [7, 8, 9]
United States: The firm was flagged for conducting digital interference operations during the 2025 municipal and mayoral elections in New York City. [5, 7]
Africa: Viginum identified active, parallel interference pipelines run by BlackCore targeting electoral processes in Angola and Togo. [2, 4]

The French government formally requested explanations and investigative assistance from Israel regarding BlackCore’s actions. In response, the Israeli embassy in Paris stated that the Israeli state had “no intention of interfering” in foreign elections and would launch its own review once it received France’s data. Before scrubbing its digital footprint, BlackCore publicly marketed itself as an elite “information warfare” firm built to “shape narratives” for political campaigns. [2, 5, 9, 10]
The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)
A major international media investigation led by the journalism consortium Forbidden Stories exposed a covert unit of Israeli contractors dubbed “Team Jorge,” run by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative. [3]

Scale of Operations: Hanan boasted to undercover reporters that his team had covertly manipulated more than 30 presidential and legislative-level elections worldwide, claiming a 70% success rate. [3, 11]
Methods: The group utilized a proprietary software platform called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS). This tool controlled an army of over 30,000 highly realistic fake profiles across platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and LinkedIn, complete with long-standing digital backstories and linked credit cards. [3, 11, 12]
Targeted Regions: Documented interventions included hacking senior political figures and running bot-driven automated disinformation campaigns across Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya), Europe, and Central/South America. The investigation revealed they had also historically collaborated with the defunct political consultancy Cambridge Analytica. [3, 11]

Other Private Corporate Actors
Beyond BlackCore and Team Jorge, other private Israeli corporate intelligence firms have faced scrutiny for intersecting with foreign political landscapes: [3]

Black Cube: This private intelligence agency, composed largely of former Israeli security and intelligence veterans, has repeatedly faced accusations of conducting corporate and political espionage. In Eastern Europe, investigations linked the firm’s private operations to efforts aimed at discrediting specific political figures ahead of national elections. [13]
Psy-Group: This now-defunct private Israeli psychological warfare company was investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice during the late 2010s regarding proposals it drafted to use social media manipulation to influence U.S. political campaigns.

While these private entities frequently employ veterans of Israel’s military intelligence and cyber divisions, international investigative bodies emphasize that they operate as private mercenaries for hire. Their motivations are primarily commercial, serving whatever foreign political candidate, billionaire, or intelligence service pays their fees, rather than advancing a unified state agenda. [3, 7, 10]

[1]  theguardian.com
[2]  silicon.co.uk
[3]  facebook.com
[4]  reuters.com
[5]  middleeasteye.net
[6]  politico.eu
[7]  theguardian.com
[8]  bbc.com
[9]  english.aawsat.com
[10]  timesofisrael.com
[11]  facebook.com
[12]  facebook.com
[13]  europeancorrespondent.com
–

Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…

–
Israel’s Private Election Interference Industry  gemini.google.com/share/24b7…
When analyzing the landscape of global election interference, the activity emanating from Israel predominantly takes the form of a highly sophisticated, privatized industry rather than traditional, state-directed operations.

The global intelligence market has seen a surge in private cyber-mercenary firms, often staffed by veterans of elite Israeli intelligence and military units (such as Unit 8200 or the Mossad). These organizations essentially privatize advanced tradecraft, selling digital sabotage, open-source intelligence (OSINT) manipulation, and psychological warfare to the highest bidder—blurring the lines between state security apparatuses and transnational influence networks.

Here is a breakdown of the most significant recent cases and the operational methods these firms employ.

The 2026 “BlackCore” Operations

In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection agency, Viginum, released a detailed report exposing an Israeli firm known as BlackCore. The firm, which billed itself as an “elite influence, cyber, and technology company,” was identified as the central actor in a series of coordinated digital interference campaigns.

France: BlackCore was initially suspected of orchestrating an online smear campaign during the French municipal elections in March 2026, specifically targeting pro-Palestine candidates from the France Unbowed (LFI) party.
Scotland: The firm targeted Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) ahead of the May 2026 elections. Using proxy accounts on X, BlackCore distributed hundreds of coordinated comments to flood posts, ostensibly in response to the SNP’s vocal criticism of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
New York City: Viginum’s report also linked BlackCore to meddling in the 2025 NYC mayoral race, specifically targeting Zohran Mamdani.
Global Reach: The agency noted that the same modus operandi had been deployed in Angola and Togo.

Following the exposure, BlackCore scrubbed its online presence. The Israeli government denied any state-sponsored intent to interfere in French or foreign political processes, stating it would conduct its own inquiry based on the French findings.

The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)

Before BlackCore, the most expansive look into this privatized industry came in 2023, when a consortium of investigative journalists (including Forbidden Stories and The Guardian) exposed a unit dubbed “Team Jorge.” The group was led by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative.

Hanan claimed his unit had covertly intervened in 33 presidential-level elections globally, boasting a success rate of 27. The investigation revealed the specific mechanics of modern information warfare:

AIMS Software: Team Jorge utilized a proprietary tool called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS) to automate and control over 30,000 fictitious social media profiles across platforms like X, Telegram, and Facebook. Each avatar had a multifaceted digital backstory, complete with credit cards and Amazon accounts, designed to bypass traditional platform security bottlenecks.
Hacking and Sabotage: Beyond bot networks, the team demonstrated the ability to hack into the Gmail and Telegram accounts of senior political aides (such as those in Kenya’s 2022 election) to gather intelligence or deploy sabotage.
Corporate Partnerships: The investigation revealed that Team Jorge had previously collaborated with the UK-based firm Cambridge Analytica to manipulate the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, highlighting how these decentralized networks operate transactionally across borders.

The Gray Area of State Culpability

While the Israeli government consistently denies officially commissioning these election interference operations, the distinction between private enterprise and state capability is heavily scrutinized.

These firms thrive because they can offer plausible deniability to their clients, which range from foreign governments and intelligence agencies to private corporations and political rivals. However, many of these operations rely on software and cyber-weaponry that require export licenses from the Israeli Ministry of Defense. For instance, some of Tal Hanan’s disinformation operations were reportedly run through Demoman International, a company registered on the Israeli Defense Ministry’s defense exports website.

This creates a complex dynamic: while the state itself may not be directing the interference to further its own immediate geopolitical goals, it serves as the incubator and regulatory umbrella for the mercenary networks executing the campaigns.
–
Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

#CIA  #FBI  #Mossad
Israel’s interference in the Elections worldwide
share.google/aimode/ZquLnkyj…
Reports of global election interference involving entities based in Israel center primarily on private cyber-intelligence and disinformation firms rather than documented operations by the Israeli state itself. International investigations and government watchdogs have exposed several private Israeli companies selling digital manipulation and psychological warfare services to foreign clients. [1, 2, 3]
–
Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…
–
The BlackCore Investigations (2026)
In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection service, Viginum, published a comprehensive report implicating the Israeli cyber-influence firm BlackCore in several recent international elections. [4]

France: The firm orchestrated an online smear campaign targeting three mayoral candidates from the left-wing, pro-Palestine La France Insoumise (LFI) party. The campaign utilized deceptive websites and AI-generated social media bots to spread false criminal allegations. [4, 5, 6]
Scotland: BlackCore deployed coordinated networks of fake proxy accounts to target First Minister John Swinney, the Scottish National Party (SNP), and the Scottish government. The operation intensified after Swinney made public remarks critical of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. [7, 8, 9]
United States: The firm was flagged for conducting digital interference operations during the 2025 municipal and mayoral elections in New York City. [5, 7]
Africa: Viginum identified active, parallel interference pipelines run by BlackCore targeting electoral processes in Angola and Togo. [2, 4]

The French government formally requested explanations and investigative assistance from Israel regarding BlackCore’s actions. In response, the Israeli embassy in Paris stated that the Israeli state had “no intention of interfering” in foreign elections and would launch its own review once it received France’s data. Before scrubbing its digital footprint, BlackCore publicly marketed itself as an elite “information warfare” firm built to “shape narratives” for political campaigns. [2, 5, 9, 10]
The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)
A major international media investigation led by the journalism consortium Forbidden Stories exposed a covert unit of Israeli contractors dubbed “Team Jorge,” run by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative. [3]

Scale of Operations: Hanan boasted to undercover reporters that his team had covertly manipulated more than 30 presidential and legislative-level elections worldwide, claiming a 70% success rate. [3, 11]
Methods: The group utilized a proprietary software platform called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS). This tool controlled an army of over 30,000 highly realistic fake profiles across platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and LinkedIn, complete with long-standing digital backstories and linked credit cards. [3, 11, 12]
Targeted Regions: Documented interventions included hacking senior political figures and running bot-driven automated disinformation campaigns across Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya), Europe, and Central/South America. The investigation revealed they had also historically collaborated with the defunct political consultancy Cambridge Analytica. [3, 11]

Other Private Corporate Actors
Beyond BlackCore and Team Jorge, other private Israeli corporate intelligence firms have faced scrutiny for intersecting with foreign political landscapes: [3]

Black Cube: This private intelligence agency, composed largely of former Israeli security and intelligence veterans, has repeatedly faced accusations of conducting corporate and political espionage. In Eastern Europe, investigations linked the firm’s private operations to efforts aimed at discrediting specific political figures ahead of national elections. [13]
Psy-Group: This now-defunct private Israeli psychological warfare company was investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice during the late 2010s regarding proposals it drafted to use social media manipulation to influence U.S. political campaigns.

While these private entities frequently employ veterans of Israel’s military intelligence and cyber divisions, international investigative bodies emphasize that they operate as private mercenaries for hire. Their motivations are primarily commercial, serving whatever foreign political candidate, billionaire, or intelligence service pays their fees, rather than advancing a unified state agenda. [3, 7, 10]

[1]  theguardian.com
[2]  silicon.co.uk
[3]  facebook.com
[4]  reuters.com
[5]  middleeasteye.net
[6]  politico.eu
[7]  theguardian.com
[8]  bbc.com
[9]  english.aawsat.com
[10]  timesofisrael.com
[11]  facebook.com
[12]  facebook.com
[13]  europeancorrespondent.com
–

Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…

–
Israel’s Private Election Interference Industry  gemini.google.com/share/24b7…
When analyzing the landscape of global election interference, the activity emanating from Israel predominantly takes the form of a highly sophisticated, privatized industry rather than traditional, state-directed operations.

The global intelligence market has seen a surge in private cyber-mercenary firms, often staffed by veterans of elite Israeli intelligence and military units (such as Unit 8200 or the Mossad). These organizations essentially privatize advanced tradecraft, selling digital sabotage, open-source intelligence (OSINT) manipulation, and psychological warfare to the highest bidder—blurring the lines between state security apparatuses and transnational influence networks.

Here is a breakdown of the most significant recent cases and the operational methods these firms employ.

The 2026 “BlackCore” Operations

In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection agency, Viginum, released a detailed report exposing an Israeli firm known as BlackCore. The firm, which billed itself as an “elite influence, cyber, and technology company,” was identified as the central actor in a series of coordinated digital interference campaigns.

France: BlackCore was initially suspected of orchestrating an online smear campaign during the French municipal elections in March 2026, specifically targeting pro-Palestine candidates from the France Unbowed (LFI) party.
Scotland: The firm targeted Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) ahead of the May 2026 elections. Using proxy accounts on X, BlackCore distributed hundreds of coordinated comments to flood posts, ostensibly in response to the SNP’s vocal criticism of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
New York City: Viginum’s report also linked BlackCore to meddling in the 2025 NYC mayoral race, specifically targeting Zohran Mamdani.
Global Reach: The agency noted that the same modus operandi had been deployed in Angola and Togo.

Following the exposure, BlackCore scrubbed its online presence. The Israeli government denied any state-sponsored intent to interfere in French or foreign political processes, stating it would conduct its own inquiry based on the French findings.

The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)

Before BlackCore, the most expansive look into this privatized industry came in 2023, when a consortium of investigative journalists (including Forbidden Stories and The Guardian) exposed a unit dubbed “Team Jorge.” The group was led by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative.

Hanan claimed his unit had covertly intervened in 33 presidential-level elections globally, boasting a success rate of 27. The investigation revealed the specific mechanics of modern information warfare:

AIMS Software: Team Jorge utilized a proprietary tool called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS) to automate and control over 30,000 fictitious social media profiles across platforms like X, Telegram, and Facebook. Each avatar had a multifaceted digital backstory, complete with credit cards and Amazon accounts, designed to bypass traditional platform security bottlenecks.
Hacking and Sabotage: Beyond bot networks, the team demonstrated the ability to hack into the Gmail and Telegram accounts of senior political aides (such as those in Kenya’s 2022 election) to gather intelligence or deploy sabotage.
Corporate Partnerships: The investigation revealed that Team Jorge had previously collaborated with the UK-based firm Cambridge Analytica to manipulate the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, highlighting how these decentralized networks operate transactionally across borders.

The Gray Area of State Culpability

While the Israeli government consistently denies officially commissioning these election interference operations, the distinction between private enterprise and state capability is heavily scrutinized.

These firms thrive because they can offer plausible deniability to their clients, which range from foreign governments and intelligence agencies to private corporations and political rivals. However, many of these operations rely on software and cyber-weaponry that require export licenses from the Israeli Ministry of Defense. For instance, some of Tal Hanan’s disinformation operations were reportedly run through Demoman International, a company registered on the Israeli Defense Ministry’s defense exports website.

This creates a complex dynamic: while the state itself may not be directing the interference to further its own immediate geopolitical goals, it serves as the incubator and regulatory umbrella for the mercenary networks executing the campaigns.
–
Blog:
thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

#CIA  #FBI  #Mossad
Israel’s interference in the Elections worldwide
share.google/aimode/ZquLnkyj…
Reports of global election interference involving entities based in Israel center primarily on private cyber-intelligence and disinformation firms rather than documented operations by the Israeli state itself. International investigations and government watchdogs have exposed several private Israeli companies selling digital manipulation and psychological warfare services to foreign clients. [1, 2, 3]
The BlackCore Investigations (2026)
In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection service, Viginum, published a comprehensive report implicating the Israeli cyber-influence firm BlackCore in several recent international elections. [4]

France: The firm orchestrated an online smear campaign targeting three mayoral candidates from the left-wing, pro-Palestine La France Insoumise (LFI) party. The campaign utilized deceptive websites and AI-generated social media bots to spread false criminal allegations. [4, 5, 6]
Scotland: BlackCore deployed coordinated networks of fake proxy accounts to target First Minister John Swinney, the Scottish National Party (SNP), and the Scottish government. The operation intensified after Swinney made public remarks critical of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. [7, 8, 9]
United States: The firm was flagged for conducting digital interference operations during the 2025 municipal and mayoral elections in New York City. [5, 7]
Africa: Viginum identified active, parallel interference pipelines run by BlackCore targeting electoral processes in Angola and Togo. [2, 4]

The French government formally requested explanations and investigative assistance from Israel regarding BlackCore’s actions. In response, the Israeli embassy in Paris stated that the Israeli state had “no intention of interfering” in foreign elections and would launch its own review once it received France’s data. Before scrubbing its digital footprint, BlackCore publicly marketed itself as an elite “information warfare” firm built to “shape narratives” for political campaigns. [2, 5, 9, 10]
The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)
A major international media investigation led by the journalism consortium Forbidden Stories exposed a covert unit of Israeli contractors dubbed “Team Jorge,” run by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative. [3]

Scale of Operations: Hanan boasted to undercover reporters that his team had covertly manipulated more than 30 presidential and legislative-level elections worldwide, claiming a 70% success rate. [3, 11]
Methods: The group utilized a proprietary software platform called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS). This tool controlled an army of over 30,000 highly realistic fake profiles across platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and LinkedIn, complete with long-standing digital backstories and linked credit cards. [3, 11, 12]
Targeted Regions: Documented interventions included hacking senior political figures and running bot-driven automated disinformation campaigns across Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya), Europe, and Central/South America. The investigation revealed they had also historically collaborated with the defunct political consultancy Cambridge Analytica. [3, 11]

Other Private Corporate Actors
Beyond BlackCore and Team Jorge, other private Israeli corporate intelligence firms have faced scrutiny for intersecting with foreign political landscapes: [3]

Black Cube: This private intelligence agency, composed largely of former Israeli security and intelligence veterans, has repeatedly faced accusations of conducting corporate and political espionage. In Eastern Europe, investigations linked the firm’s private operations to efforts aimed at discrediting specific political figures ahead of national elections. [13]
Psy-Group: This now-defunct private Israeli psychological warfare company was investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice during the late 2010s regarding proposals it drafted to use social media manipulation to influence U.S. political campaigns.

While these private entities frequently employ veterans of Israel’s military intelligence and cyber divisions, international investigative bodies emphasize that they operate as private mercenaries for hire. Their motivations are primarily commercial, serving whatever foreign political candidate, billionaire, or intelligence service pays their fees, rather than advancing a unified state agenda. [3, 7, 10]

[1]  theguardian.com
[2]  silicon.co.uk
[3]  facebook.com
[4]  reuters.com
[5]  middleeasteye.net
[6]  politico.eu
[7]  theguardian.com
[8]  bbc.com
[9]  english.aawsat.com
[10]  timesofisrael.com
[11]  facebook.com
[12]  facebook.com
[13]  europeancorrespondent.com
–

Israel’s Private Election Interference Industry  gemini.google.com/share/24b7…
When analyzing the landscape of global election interference, the activity emanating from Israel predominantly takes the form of a highly sophisticated, privatized industry rather than traditional, state-directed operations.

The global intelligence market has seen a surge in private cyber-mercenary firms, often staffed by veterans of elite Israeli intelligence and military units (such as Unit 8200 or the Mossad). These organizations essentially privatize advanced tradecraft, selling digital sabotage, open-source intelligence (OSINT) manipulation, and psychological warfare to the highest bidder—blurring the lines between state security apparatuses and transnational influence networks.

Here is a breakdown of the most significant recent cases and the operational methods these firms employ.

The 2026 “BlackCore” Operations

In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection agency, Viginum, released a detailed report exposing an Israeli firm known as BlackCore. The firm, which billed itself as an “elite influence, cyber, and technology company,” was identified as the central actor in a series of coordinated digital interference campaigns.

France: BlackCore was initially suspected of orchestrating an online smear campaign during the French municipal elections in March 2026, specifically targeting pro-Palestine candidates from the France Unbowed (LFI) party.
Scotland: The firm targeted Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) ahead of the May 2026 elections. Using proxy accounts on X, BlackCore distributed hundreds of coordinated comments to flood posts, ostensibly in response to the SNP’s vocal criticism of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
New York City: Viginum’s report also linked BlackCore to meddling in the 2025 NYC mayoral race, specifically targeting Zohran Mamdani.
Global Reach: The agency noted that the same modus operandi had been deployed in Angola and Togo.

Following the exposure, BlackCore scrubbed its online presence. The Israeli government denied any state-sponsored intent to interfere in French or foreign political processes, stating it would conduct its own inquiry based on the French findings.

The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)

Before BlackCore, the most expansive look into this privatized industry came in 2023, when a consortium of investigative journalists (including Forbidden Stories and The Guardian) exposed a unit dubbed “Team Jorge.” The group was led by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative.

Hanan claimed his unit had covertly intervened in 33 presidential-level elections globally, boasting a success rate of 27. The investigation revealed the specific mechanics of modern information warfare:

AIMS Software: Team Jorge utilized a proprietary tool called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS) to automate and control over 30,000 fictitious social media profiles across platforms like X, Telegram, and Facebook. Each avatar had a multifaceted digital backstory, complete with credit cards and Amazon accounts, designed to bypass traditional platform security bottlenecks.
Hacking and Sabotage: Beyond bot networks, the team demonstrated the ability to hack into the Gmail and Telegram accounts of senior political aides (such as those in Kenya’s 2022 election) to gather intelligence or deploy sabotage.
Corporate Partnerships: The investigation revealed that Team Jorge had previously collaborated with the UK-based firm Cambridge Analytica to manipulate the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, highlighting how these decentralized networks operate transactionally across borders.

The Gray Area of State Culpability

While the Israeli government consistently denies officially commissioning these election interference operations, the distinction between private enterprise and state capability is heavily scrutinized.

These firms thrive because they can offer plausible deniability to their clients, which range from foreign governments and intelligence agencies to private corporations and political rivals. However, many of these operations rely on software and cyber-weaponry that require export licenses from the Israeli Ministry of Defense. For instance, some of Tal Hanan’s disinformation operations were reportedly run through Demoman International, a company registered on the Israeli Defense Ministry’s defense exports website.

This creates a complex dynamic: while the state itself may not be directing the interference to further its own immediate geopolitical goals, it serves as the incubator and regulatory umbrella for the mercenary networks executing the campaigns.

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

Israel’s Private Election Interference Industry  gemini.google.com/share/24b7…
When analyzing the landscape of global election interference, the activity emanating from Israel predominantly takes the form of a highly sophisticated, privatized industry rather than traditional, state-directed operations.

The global intelligence market has seen a surge in private cyber-mercenary firms, often staffed by veterans of elite Israeli intelligence and military units (such as Unit 8200 or the Mossad). These organizations essentially privatize advanced tradecraft, selling digital sabotage, open-source intelligence (OSINT) manipulation, and psychological warfare to the highest bidder—blurring the lines between state security apparatuses and transnational influence networks.

Here is a breakdown of the most significant recent cases and the operational methods these firms employ.

The 2026 “BlackCore” Operations

In June 2026, France’s disinformation detection agency, Viginum, released a detailed report exposing an Israeli firm known as BlackCore. The firm, which billed itself as an “elite influence, cyber, and technology company,” was identified as the central actor in a series of coordinated digital interference campaigns.

France: BlackCore was initially suspected of orchestrating an online smear campaign during the French municipal elections in March 2026, specifically targeting pro-Palestine candidates from the France Unbowed (LFI) party.
Scotland: The firm targeted Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) ahead of the May 2026 elections. Using proxy accounts on X, BlackCore distributed hundreds of coordinated comments to flood posts, ostensibly in response to the SNP’s vocal criticism of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
New York City: Viginum’s report also linked BlackCore to meddling in the 2025 NYC mayoral race, specifically targeting Zohran Mamdani.
Global Reach: The agency noted that the same modus operandi had been deployed in Angola and Togo.

Following the exposure, BlackCore scrubbed its online presence. The Israeli government denied any state-sponsored intent to interfere in French or foreign political processes, stating it would conduct its own inquiry based on the French findings.

The “Team Jorge” Exposé (2023)

Before BlackCore, the most expansive look into this privatized industry came in 2023, when a consortium of investigative journalists (including Forbidden Stories and The Guardian) exposed a unit dubbed “Team Jorge.” The group was led by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative.

Hanan claimed his unit had covertly intervened in 33 presidential-level elections globally, boasting a success rate of 27. The investigation revealed the specific mechanics of modern information warfare:

AIMS Software: Team Jorge utilized a proprietary tool called Advanced Impact Media Solutions (AIMS) to automate and control over 30,000 fictitious social media profiles across platforms like X, Telegram, and Facebook. Each avatar had a multifaceted digital backstory, complete with credit cards and Amazon accounts, designed to bypass traditional platform security bottlenecks.
Hacking and Sabotage: Beyond bot networks, the team demonstrated the ability to hack into the Gmail and Telegram accounts of senior political aides (such as those in Kenya’s 2022 election) to gather intelligence or deploy sabotage.
Corporate Partnerships: The investigation revealed that Team Jorge had previously collaborated with the UK-based firm Cambridge Analytica to manipulate the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, highlighting how these decentralized networks operate transactionally across borders.

The Gray Area of State Culpability

While the Israeli government consistently denies officially commissioning these election interference operations, the distinction between private enterprise and state capability is heavily scrutinized.

These firms thrive because they can offer plausible deniability to their clients, which range from foreign governments and intelligence agencies to private corporations and political rivals. However, many of these operations rely on software and cyber-weaponry that require export licenses from the Israeli Ministry of Defense. For instance, some of Tal Hanan’s disinformation operations were reportedly run through Demoman International, a company registered on the Israeli Defense Ministry’s defense exports website.

This creates a complex dynamic: while the state itself may not be directing the interference to further its own immediate geopolitical goals, it serves as the incubator and regulatory umbrella for the mercenary networks executing the campaigns.

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026