Category: Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.

U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said. 

The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said. 

U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. The Biden administration had tense relations with Russia, which collapsed after it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

After the publication of this story, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman, said “the only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump wins re-election.

With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials expect them to solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang. 

“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”

A burgeoning alliance

U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.

Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine, based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang was most likely exaggerating its capabilities. They said the submarine still needed additional technology before it could deploy or launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

Despite repeatedly offering to begin talks without any conditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years, the officials said. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond.

U.S. officials said they do not have an entirely clear understanding of the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, sharing of military technology is not as easily detected. 

“The higher-end Russia technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.

U.S. officials cautioned that the North Korean ammunition is most likely old and unreliable. But North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, so the influx gave Russia an advantage on the battlefield.

The officials said that in exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to provide it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technologies.

In recent months North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that together have made its missile program more reliable, U.S. officials warn. 

Pyongyang has long sought a long-range ballistic missile able to fly thousands of miles and then re-enter the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be helping it achieve the final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would present a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems. 

U.S. officials also said there has been increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

The group said that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”

The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010. 

“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.

U.S. officials said they are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic manufacturing of weapons and even create a defense industrial base partnership. 

An ‘October surprise’?

Whether or not Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to such a step. The official said China, which has also grown closer to Russia and helped Putin wage his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.

Still, U.S. officials concede there is much about the Russia-North Korea alliance — and where it could go from here — that they do not know. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas. 

Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened were he in office. Biden White House officials vehemently dispute that claim.

The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program. 

“This is an enormous shift,” the second senior administration official said.

Published August 30, 2024 at 1:23 PM EDT

The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:

• A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
• A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
• The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
• A candidate with a real chance of becoming America’s first African-American, Asian-American, female President. 

“This has been unprecedented,” said Eastern Connecticut State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.

Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.

“We’ve seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,” he said.

On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination is notable, because we now have “a Democratic National Committee with a candidate who’s received no votes in the primary.”

So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.

“We’ve been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It’s not,” Balcerski said. “It’s decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the ‘October surprise,’ that could change the entire course of the race.”

The history of the ‘October Surprise’

An “October Surprise” is now defined as ”an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,” according to The Oxford English Dictionary

But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.

“It didn’t actually have a political meaning,” Balcerski said. “It’s an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.”

A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term’s evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.

“It really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan’s campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,” Balcerski said. “That was considered the first ‘October Surprise.’”

October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run.

“In 2016, it would seem the ‘October Surprise’ may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,” Balcerski said.

Then came a second surprise.

“We also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s staff and use of a private email server,” he said.

In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden’s laptop. The New York Post published a story in mid-October 2020 detailing documents found on the device.

“And so here we are now, in 2024 with ‘anything can happen,’” Balcerski said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.”

Stand up for civility

This news story is funded in large part by Connecticut Public’s Members —
listeners, viewers, and readers like you who value fact-based journalism and trustworthy information.

We hope their support inspires you to donate so that we can continue telling stories that inform, educate, and inspire you and your neighbors. As a
community-supported public media service, Connecticut Public has relied on donor support for more than 50 years.

Your donation today will allow us to continue this work on your behalf. Give today at any amount and join the 50,000 members who are
building a better—and more civil—Connecticut to live, work, and play.

Donate

The FBI is under fire after an internal watchdog report released yesterday found that the agency is continuing to mishandle child sex abuse cases.

It comes three years after the agency failed to investigate USA Gymnastics physician Larry Nassar.

In the new audit, the inspector general found that agents missed responding to 42 cases marked for “immediate attention.” That’s a staggering 12% of the cases he reviewed.

The auditors also noted a failure to report cases to local law enforcement and to follow FBI policies. They noted a lack of staffing, highlighted by one agent assigned simultaneously to 60 cases.

The FBI says it is learning from its mistakes and will implement the watchdog’s recommendations. However, lawmakers call the report “damning” and “outrageous.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Ct.) is calling for a hearing next month.

It remains to be seen whether or not President Biden remains the Democrats’ nominee for president, amid growing calls to replace him atop the ticket. But at this moment, the race is frozen in place. 

Indeed, Donald Trump’s lead in national polling — now sitting at 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent) per the RealClearPolitics polling average — has remained remarkably consistent for months. This is true even after Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the discontent it engendered among Democrats.  

Since last November, the race has been stubbornly rangebound, with Trump’s lead over Biden consistently within a 1 to 4-point range, per RealClearPolitics moving averages. 

Moreover, even if Vice President Kamala Harris were to replace Biden, polls show there would be no significant movement. Trump’s lead over Harris, sitting at 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), is identical to the former president’s lead over Biden.  

Put another way, the debate — and the last 18 months of campaigning — did little to alter national polling in a race that is frankly stuck, due almost entirely to the fact that both Biden and Trump are so well known, and our country is extraordinarily polarized. 

What, then, could cause a decisive shift in Biden or Trump’s favor? Quite simply, the answer is an outside event. Or, as it’s otherwise known, an October Surprise. 

To that end, given that Biden’s and Trump’s strengths and weaknesses are familiar to voters, it is more likely that a truly pivotal October Surprise comes in the form of a foreign policy development that either drastically helps or harms Biden.  

For Biden, this might be the only way he can change a situation where he leads in only one of the 13 most recent major polls. 

Biden appears to recognize that an October Surprise, handled well, would be decisive. During Thursday’s press conference concluding the NATO summit, he spent much of the time on foreign policy, setting up for a breakthrough in either Asia, Europe, or the Middle East. 

In particular, the war between Israel and Hamas could end, potentially even as part of a larger regional peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That would be considerably more monumental than when Trump orchestrated the Abraham Accords in the final days before the 2020 election.

As the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, there appears to be a breakthrough on a temporary cease-fire in Gaza that may turn permanent. While this is no guarantee, if Biden were able to secure a stop in the fighting that lasted through the fall, it would be a significant boost for his embattled campaign.   

However, events could go the other way. The war could escalate with the outbreak of a true second front in Lebanon, given Hezbollah’s repeated attacks on Israel. If a full-scale war breaks out, particularly if Iran intervenes on behalf of Hezbollah, the U.S. may be drawn into a direct conflict with Iran and a significant war in the Middle East, for which Biden would be held responsible.

At the same time, events in Asia could quickly spiral out of control if China or even North Korea thinks it would face less resistance to an invasion of Taiwan or South Korea, respectively, under a weakened Biden than under Trump.  

All of this is to say that if there is a major geopolitical crisis, Biden will play an outsized role. If he rises to the occasion, it will do more to address concerns over his fitness than virtually any press conference or campaign rally ever could.  

Conversely, if Americans feel that Biden’s perceived weakness led to increased geopolitical chaos, it may be the nail in his campaign’s coffin. 

The first significant “October Surprise” that I remember came more than six decades ago. In October 1962, former President John F. Kennedy narrowly avoided what could have been a nuclear Holocaust by diffusing the Cuban Missile Crisis, giving Democrats momentum ahead of that year’s midterms. 

However, it is often hard to tell whether or not an October Surprise is truly a “game changer.” It is usually unclear how voters will react, regardless of what the event is. 

Most notably, the 2016 and 2020 elections had events that all could have been considered decisive October Surprises, yet only one is considered to have swayed an election. 

October 2016 saw two bombshells just days apart, with the release of the now infamous Access Hollywood tape featuring former President Donald Trump and then at the end of the month — 11 days before the election — then-FBI director James Comey informed Congress that the FBI was again looking into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. 

As FiveThirtyEight noted shortly after the 2016 election, immediately before the Comey Letter, Clinton had a sizable 6 point lead over Trump. Within a week of its release, her lead had been cut in half. In the “average swing state,” Clinton’s edge declined from roughly 5 points to under 2 points in the same period. 

At the same time, the Access Hollywood tape — which may have assumed would be the decisive surprise — was relegated to the background.  

Similarly, in 2020, the Trump campaign surely hoped that the revelations surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop would be the decisive shock when the story broke that October, yet it made no difference in the end. 

As the race stands right now, Trump is the clear favorite. Even if national polling shows a race that has moved little, swing state polling underscores that conclusion.  

Yet there are nearly four months before Americans head to the polls, which is an immense amount of time in politics.  

While it is no guarantee that there will be an October Surprise, history has shown that within the closing months of a presidential campaign, the power of incumbents to shape perceptions of themselves, their ability to manage significant events and, ultimately, American public opinion, cannot be minimized nor ignored. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” 

A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet may have been brought down by Ukraine’s own air defense in a case of friendly fire, a source in the country’s air force told Voice of America’s (VOA) Ukrainian service.

Kyiv said the F-16 crashed on Monday during a mission to repel Russian missiles, confirming the first loss of one of the U.S.-made fighter jets since their delivery to Ukraine was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The pilot, lieutenant colonel Oleksii Mes, was killed in the crash, Ukraine’s Army General Staff said on Thursday.

Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets were used during a missile and drone barrage launched by Russia, the General Staff said, adding that the aircraft “demonstrated their high efficiency” and “four enemy cruise missiles were shot down by airborne weapons.”

“During the approach to the next target with one of the planes… the plane crashed, the pilot died,” it said.

Ukraine is considering the possibility that the F-16 crash was caused by friendly fire, the unnamed source in Ukraine’s air force said, adding that an investigation is ongoing into the incident.

“Various versions are being considered, including ‘friendly fire’ from our own air defense, a technical malfunction, and pilot error,” the source told the VOA on the condition of anonymity. “However, the exact causes will only be known after the investigation is completed.”

Newsweek has contacted Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Ukraine’s Air Command Zakhid said pilot Mes was killed “defending our country.”

“He heroically fought his last battle in the sky. On August 26, while repelling a massive Russian combined missile and drone attack, Oleksii destroyed three cruise missiles and one attack UAV. Oleksii saved Ukrainians from deadly Russian missiles. Unfortunately, at the cost of his own life,” the command said.

Zelensky had long called on his Western allies to provide his military with the advanced fighter jets to assist in the war against Russia, now in its third year.

In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine’s allies in NATO had started transferring the U.S.-manufactured jets to Ukraine. He said they would be “flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression.”

F-16s were spotted earlier this month over the front line in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, according to Pavlo Filipchuk, a Kremlin-installed official, who said they were flying above the Ukrainian settlement of Kakhovka “only to sow panic.”

Zelensky had confirmed days earlier that the aircraft had arrived in Ukraine and were already being used by Kyiv’s air force.

“I am proud of all our guys who have mastered these aircraft and have already started using them for our country,” the Ukrainian president said. “F-16s are already in Ukrainian skies, and there will be more.”

Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium had pledged to send more than 60 F-16s to Ukraine this summer but Bloomberg reported on July 12, citing unnamed sources, that this year Kyiv may get far fewer of the jets than it had hoped—six this summer and up to 20 by the end of 2024.

Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine had used F-16s to intercept missiles and drones launched by Russia.

Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Thursday that she was aware of the reports that the F-16 could have been shot down by Ukrainian air defense, but said she “can’t confirm it.”

“I don’t have that level of fidelity right now. So, in terms of if this pilot was killed and it was brought down by friendly fire, that I just can’t speak to. That would really be something for the Ukrainians to speak to,” Singh said.

She added: “The United States has not been asked to participate in any type of investigation to look into this incident.”

Do you have a tip on a world news story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? Let us know via <a href=”mailto:worldnews@newsweek.com”>worldnews@newsweek.com</a>.

Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s high-level military purge of his top officials continued on Thursday with the arrest of the country’s former Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov.

Russia’s Investigative Committee said a fraud case had been opened against Popov, 67, who was removed from his post in June after 11 years in the position.

The former deputy defense minister is the latest high-level official linked to former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to be caught up in corruption investigations. He faces up to 10 years in jail. A video published by state-run news agency Tass showed Popov being taken to a Moscow court in handcuffs.

Eight military officials have been arrested since April in what has been described as a “cleansing” of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which includes the dismissal of Putin’s long-serving Defense Minister Shoigu in May. Putin replaced him with economist Andrei Belousov.

Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry for comment by email.

Popov is accused of misusing resources meant for a military theme park near Moscow, called Patriot Park, between 2021 and 2024.

“Now this is, of course, a blow to Shoigu,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik: Reality of Russian Politics, a political analysis firm, said on her Telegram channel of Popov’s arrest.

A number of prominent military officials have been detained in recent months, including former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who was arrested on April 23 on suspicion of taking bribes.

Vladimir Verteletsky, a defense ministry official, was arrested in May, accused of taking a bribe in relation to “work that was not carried out” under a government contract in 2022, according to Russia’s Investigative Committee.

Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, was also detained in May “in connection with the case of alleged fraud,” Russian newspaper Kommersant reported. Shamarin is reported to be a top aide to Russia’s top general, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and had served as deputy chief of the Russian General Staff since 2021.

Yuri Kuznetsov, the head of the Russia’s Defense Ministry’s personnel department, was also detained in May on suspicion of taking a bribe, while Major General Ivan Popov, who had headed Russia’s 58th Army, was “arrested on suspicion of fraud,” state news agency Tass reported on May 21.

In late July, Andrei Belkov, the director of the Defense Ministry’s Military Construction Company, was accused of abuse of power in the execution of a state defense order, Kommersant reported, citing security agency sources. He was detained for purchasing a tomograph at an inflated price while he was the head of another military organization under the defense ministry—the Main Military Construction Directorate for Special Facilities.

Andrei Soldatov, a leading expert on Russia’s security services, told Newsweek this month that the arrests were likely ordered by Putin himself.

“The FSB and the Investigative Committee do not initiate such investigations/repression—it’s done on the orders coming from the very top, i.e. the administration of the president,” Soldatov said.

“The role of the FSB [Federal Security Service] is to provide compromising material and squeeze more from the arrested during their interrogations,” he said, adding that Russia’s FSB “acts on an ‘object principle.'”

This means FSB officials “work meticulously on the object that needs to be cleansed or put under control,” Soldatov said.

“It could be a region, or a ministry, as with the [Russian Ministry of Defense]—usually, they detain one of several deputies, so they could be interrogated about their superiors and colleagues—that, it is believed, makes sure the ‘object’ is firmly under Kremlin control,” Soldatov added.

Do you have a tip on a world news story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? Let us know via <a href=”mailto:worldnews@newsweek.com”>worldnews@newsweek.com</a>.

Go deeper

Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov’s arrest in France on Saturday could complicate Russian military plans in Ukraine, experts claim.

Telegram is very popular among Russian speakers and plays a crucial role in the war in Ukraine, both for the operations on the ground and in spreading Moscow’s narrative.

According to the Institute for the Study of War think tank, it is “the main alternative to official communications for Russian military personnel in Ukraine”.

“It’s not just a news source, but it’s a kind of key messenger that is used for coordination of action at different levels, to store videos, to share large files and all this kind of things, and you’ve got a lot of channels more or less directly connected with the Kremlin or with the Department of Defence of Russia,” Christine Dugoin-Clément, a researcher at the Sorbonne Business School, told Euronews.

Telegram is an encrypted chat that avoided being put under Russian government control in 2018. However, according to experts, the Kremlin has managed to manipulate it by introducing stricter legislation regarding its activities.

“The owners of channels that have gathered more than 10,000 followers have to provide information to Roskomnadzor, which is more or less the organisation in charge of controlling all the media and social networks,” Dugoin-Clément said.

“In the same law, they are explaining that if you’ve got a channel that more than 500,000 users follow, you have to provide all the information on your users if Roskomnadzoror or the FSB is asking for it. So there is not exactly a control, but let’s say it is a kind of cooperation.”

Will Russians abandon Telegram?

With its CEO in prison in an EU country, Russian forces may start leaving Telegram, which, in the extreme scenario, could also be totally blocked in the country.

This uncertainty will likely impact Russian frontline operations, even if it seems unlikely that the French authorities could disclose the information in the encrypted chats.

“They could try to do so. It would be illegal, because at the EU level there is no decision about being allowed to read messages,” Axel Legay of the Ecole Polytechnique de Louvain told Euronews.

“Three months ago, the EU could not reach an agreement on this. So yeah, they could try this with secret services or whatever. But I really don’t think that’s that’s the main problem now.”

Durov’s detention is turning into a diplomatic incident between France and Russia. The Russian embassy in Paris has accused France of refusing to cooperate, but French President Macron insisted that the arrest was not a “political decision”.